The Data Behind the BIP-110 Fight | Renaud Cuny | BIS #208
Renaud Cuny joins the Bitcoin Infinity Show to talk about measuring the monetary health of the Bitcoin network through hard data, from the percentage of block space consumed by spam to the concentration of mining pools and hardware manufacturers. He walks through his Bitcoin Portal project, which scores decentralization and security across mining, block space, and node diversity, and explains why direction matters more than any single number. The conversation digs into BIP-110, the OP_RETURN debate, Bitcoin Knots adoption, hash renting through Ocean and Datum, and what self-custody and node-running mean for keeping Bitcoin sound money.
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00:00 - Introducing Renaud and the Bitcoin Portal
01:59 - Renaud's background and Bitcoin Portal start
06:10 - Analyzing Bitcoin spam and monetary health
09:25 - The Bitcoin monetary health score
16:07 - Mining decentralization and security
28:51 - Block space health and network spam
35:50 - Node count and implementation diversity
39:17 - BIP-110 adoption and August outlook
52:20 - Bitcoin's complexity and future conferences
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Renaud, welcome to the Bitcoin Infinity Show.
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Bienvenue is the correct term, right?
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Yes, merci beaucoup.
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You're an interesting fellow.
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You haven't been on the scene for very long,
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but you've built a couple of really useful websites here.
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We're going to go through one of them today,
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the Bitcoin Portal, I believe it's called, right?
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Yes.
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But first of all, since you haven't been on before,
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could you tell our listeners a little about yourself
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and how you found Bitcoin and just whatever you want,
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what you're working on and so on?
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Yes, sure.
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So I kind of discovered Bitcoin quite recently.
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It was in 2023.
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And of course, I knew about it way, way longer than that.
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but I always kind of thought it was a little bit of a scam before that.
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And in 2023, I was kind of maybe more open at that time.
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And in fact, I stumbled upon a video from Matthew Cratter,
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who you had, I think, a couple of days ago.
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And it kind of clicked at that time.
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And basically, I was kind of liking the way he was presenting things, you know, very analytical, but also very precise.
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So I kind of thought, OK, now it's time for me to kind of jump in.
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And since then, I've been very, very focused and interested on Bitcoin and trying to find a way and maybe a niche where I can contribute.
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So that's the idea. So quite recently, you know, two or three years.
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But your background is in, you're a developer basically, right?
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So I started in the telecom industry about 30 years ago, right?
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So I started at Nokia in the late 90s, doing some research on telecommunication networks.
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And so it was 2G, GPRS, 3G at the time, then moving to 4G.
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And so first I kind of was doing the research and the solution development,
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and then I moved to product management in the telco industry until 2023, actually.
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And yes, I have a lot of background exposure to data analytics and collection and, you know, analysis.
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And I thought it would be interesting to use that background to analyze Bitcoin network.
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That is also a network.
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So yeah, basically 12 years, 12, 13 years in product management and doing some software for telco operators.
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All right. And the site you're working on, how long has it been up?
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So I started about a year ago to put it up and it was April last year.
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And basically, I, yeah, I'd say, you know, at the beginning, it was just one page trying to show a few things, collecting data from my own node.
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And then adding more data source, you know, price, but also other things like nodes, accounts and stuff like that.
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so I have kind of expanded a bit the scope
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and lately I'm trying to evaluate
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the different, you know, qualities
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monetary qualities of Bitcoin
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based on the various statistics
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that we can collect from the network
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and I think we can go deeper
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later in the interview, yeah
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Yeah, so there are a lot of
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blockchain analytics sites, of course
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I think mempool.space is probably the most popular one.
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But what people don't realize is that they can run these instances themselves.
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So like your site, is that also like it's data from your node?
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Is that correct?
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Or is it open sourced so you can connect it to your own node and they use that data?
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Or how does it work?
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Yeah, my site is collecting data from my own node.
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But I know there are other ways, right, to collect data from the Bitcoin network.
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And I think it's right that you could actually query mempool.space probably.
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I think there are some APIs that you can use.
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But yeah, I'm using my own node at the moment.
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And it's not, my site is not yet open source.
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But this is something I'm thinking about.
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I would like to have it, you know, very kind of ready before I go there.
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So if it's still kind of in construction, it's a bit early maybe.
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Yeah, not to bash memple.space too much here, but I prefer memple.guide, which has the shit icon for crap data.
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Instead of playing these games and calling them whatever the spammers want to call them, like BRC20 tokens.
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Yes.
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Because like many of these projects, they're funded by grants.
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And when you get funded by grants, sometimes you want to appease the people giving you the grant.
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And I suspect that something like that has happened to memple.space,
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who used to have the little turd icon for all arbitrary data,
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but now it's sort of legitimizing the thing.
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So if you don't want that, but still don't want the hassle of connecting it to your own node,
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but you can go to memple.guide instead, which I view as better.
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Yeah, I'm using it actually also on my site, memple.guide.
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So when you drill down to a certain block, you go there.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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Having said that, I love the memple.space site.
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It's very useful and very well presented.
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I use it a lot, especially for fee estimations.
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I prefer to estimate the fee myself most of the time
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and not use default settings in wallets
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Anyway, this is not an interview about that site
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so it's about your site
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So you're collecting data
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What's the main point of the site?
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What kind of information do you want to convey to people?
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Yeah, so basically I kind of
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during this V30, core V30 debate
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It was then a lot about the spam, right?
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Spam on the blockchain.
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And even the justification for V30 was that, yeah, anyway, there is, you know, already plenty of spam.
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And it's better to, you know, to open up this op return so that spammer can use it.
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And then it's less harmful for the chain, right?
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That's one of the justifications.
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But the thing is that there was not really data shown to back this up.
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So I thought, okay, now maybe it's time to kind of try to see what's going on in the blockchain.
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What is the level of spam?
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What is the percentage of spam versus financial transactions?
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what are the different ways the spammers are adding data.
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So you have the ordinals, you have the op return runes,
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but these ones, they are typically below a certain size,
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below 80 bytes, for instance.
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And then you have the large op return.
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So different type of spam going on.
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And I thought, okay, probably good to start having some visibility on that.
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So that's what I started to add.
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And then it's kind of expanded to also other things.
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So what I try to do is really to show the status of the network in terms of spam,
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but also other indicators like, you know, mining, concentration,
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things that you can also find in other sites like maple.guide as well.
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but I thought, okay, having everything under one place umbrella would actually help.
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And then I expanded that further, so I thought, okay,
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why don't I try to kind of characterize and give a kind of score
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for the Bitcoin monetary health?
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And using, of course, the underlying network indicators,
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trying to derive a certain state health of the network.
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So that's what I'm doing right now.
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Yeah, is that a percentage of health or like how do you present that?
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Yeah, it's exactly, it's a percentage.
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It's a score between 0 to 100.
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Of course, it's subjective.
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so you need to kind of use a certain formula
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to arrive to that score.
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But the thing is that it's kind of open,
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so I'm presenting the methodology.
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And what is more important than the actual score
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is the direction it takes, right?
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So now, for instance, it's saying like we had 57 for security
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and 52 for decentralization.
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But what's more interesting is the direction that it takes
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so we can look at the evolution across months and years
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to see where we are going, basically.
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That's the idea.
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That's a very neat idea.
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I bet in the future people will measure the health of the network in Renaults.
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So, yeah, we're running at 97 Renaults per block here.
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and that's pretty good.
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But the good thing is that always those scores,
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they kind of reveal underneath the actual indicators.
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So the percentage of spam,
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the moment we had 45% of spam in the blockchain,
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the amount of large up return,
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the top mining pools.
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So now, like Matthew said in your interview,
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I think top five mining pools, they collect, they gather more than 90% of the hash rates.
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So this is, these kind of indicators are always shown.
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And then I derive a score.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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And a point that a lot of people miss is that the more decentralized mining is, the more
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the filters work.
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So the mempool filters only work if Bitcoin is functioning as it intended with decentralized
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mining, which is sort of coming back with this hash renting thing, to a certain extent,
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at least.
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So I hope that's where we're going directionally, even if it's going to take a while to solve
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the problem completely.
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I mean, who knows?
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I think it's really a revolution, this hash renting, because the scale is totally different.
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So, if you want, before that, if you wanted to kind of, and I've done that, you know, rent a miner, you know, it's maybe you hash at 120 terash, but with the mining, you can go much higher.
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What kind of beta hash that you can have.
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Yeah, bit access and whatnot are very neat, but this is a whole different level.
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It's the equivalent of thousands of bit access running in your home, and you don't have to listen to the fans blowing all day.
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So it's very neat.
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I mean, enabled by Datum and Ocean, in a sense that now you can become a miner rather than just a hashmonger.
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Exactly.
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because I love that distinction.
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Because if you don't know what block you're mining on,
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you cannot really call yourself a miner in any sense.
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You're just a hasher.
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But yeah, we're going to try something here
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that we don't usually try on this show,
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but I think it'll work.
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And that is, why don't you just start showing us the site
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and walk us through it and what information you can find there
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and what you can use it for.
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That's great.
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Let me share my screen.
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So firefish.io, bitfox.swiss,
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and also the BullBitcoin wallet.
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Don't forget to brush your teeth.
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Do you see it?
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I do, yes.
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Very good.
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So basically, it's completely renewed.
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I launched the new version on Monday.
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Basically, the first landing page is kind of explaining the concept, you know, what we are trying to do here.
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And the idea is that we scored Bitcoin monetary health with two indicators, decentralization and security.
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This idea is coming from Jeff Booth.
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Yeah.
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I think everybody knows that, you know, he has repeated many times that if Bitcoin stays decentralized and secure,
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then it's going to be fine right it's called the blockchain trilemma i believe and i i think
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jeff has popularized it for sure but i think it was around even before jeff if if i'm not
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wrong here uh but it it basically says that can only a blockchain can only do two out of three and
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that is decentralization security and scaling is the third one right and so so this is why
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Bitcoin has to scale via layer twos
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because you cannot scale on-chain
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without compromising decentralization and security,
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which are very much two sides of the same coin.
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If it's not decentralized, it isn't secure.
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And if it isn't secured,
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then what's the point?
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Yes.
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So that first page basically explained the concept
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It also shows here the different dimensions that I'm using to score the Bitcoin health.
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So we have the mining, the first dimension, very important, of course.
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Then we have the block space.
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And I will go to the details maybe after that.
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00:16:31,539 --> 00:16:33,339
But we have block space and governance.
224
00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:37,499
There's been a lot of talk on the governance in Bitcoin core.
225
00:16:37,499 --> 00:16:40,419
something I thought would be good to look into
226
00:16:40,419 --> 00:16:44,899
and maybe gather objective indicators.
227
00:16:45,459 --> 00:16:47,079
That's really the idea here,
228
00:16:47,159 --> 00:16:52,379
to gather indicators that are out there
229
00:16:52,379 --> 00:16:54,699
that you can really collect.
230
00:16:55,339 --> 00:16:55,939
Then we have Bono.
231
00:16:56,339 --> 00:16:57,099
Yeah, go ahead.
232
00:16:57,099 --> 00:17:03,579
Would a number of different types of implementations
233
00:17:03,579 --> 00:17:06,639
be a scoring thing there in the governance?
234
00:17:06,639 --> 00:17:08,599
piece of the pie?
235
00:17:08,899 --> 00:17:10,599
Yes, also in the nodes,
236
00:17:10,699 --> 00:17:12,199
but also in the governance, exactly.
237
00:17:13,939 --> 00:17:14,739
And the governance,
238
00:17:15,379 --> 00:17:17,259
I'm developing the model now,
239
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:18,759
but the idea would be really to
240
00:17:18,759 --> 00:17:21,199
actually to go to the GitHub
241
00:17:21,199 --> 00:17:23,359
and see and collect
242
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:28,499
what can be collected objectively,
243
00:17:29,099 --> 00:17:32,139
the number of NAGs,
244
00:17:32,279 --> 00:17:33,379
things like that,
245
00:17:33,379 --> 00:17:36,619
that are objective metrics,
246
00:17:36,639 --> 00:17:38,839
and then, okay, derive a score.
247
00:17:40,999 --> 00:17:44,479
And also it will include, you know, the process,
248
00:17:44,859 --> 00:17:50,519
what is followed when launching a new version,
249
00:17:51,299 --> 00:17:55,479
the quality criteria and so on.
250
00:17:55,899 --> 00:17:57,399
But it's under construction.
251
00:17:58,659 --> 00:18:01,679
We have, yeah, so, but that's, I think,
252
00:18:01,719 --> 00:18:04,559
is going to be kind of a tough one,
253
00:18:04,559 --> 00:18:05,779
of course, quite controversial,
254
00:18:05,779 --> 00:18:10,999
But again, I will just collect the things that are objective here.
255
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:13,379
This is super interesting.
256
00:18:13,579 --> 00:18:16,519
It says three out of seven dimensions live.
257
00:18:16,619 --> 00:18:19,539
I guess the dimensions are the pieces of the pie.
258
00:18:19,859 --> 00:18:21,079
Yes, exactly.
259
00:18:21,299 --> 00:18:25,259
And maybe I can go to those directly if you want.
260
00:18:25,879 --> 00:18:33,919
Yeah, just like when I see this, I get excited because I have so many opinions about this
261
00:18:33,919 --> 00:18:34,279
and that.
262
00:18:34,279 --> 00:18:39,559
fungibility for instance is super hard to to measure i guess because it's in the eye of the
263
00:18:39,559 --> 00:18:47,739
beholder to a lot to a large extent yes adoption like uh does it mean i mean do you count hodling
264
00:18:47,739 --> 00:18:57,039
as adoption as i i guess not but it's sort of uh the transactions per per time unit metric is a
265
00:18:57,039 --> 00:18:59,779
very Keynesian notion in my opinion.
266
00:19:00,459 --> 00:19:02,719
And it doesn't really say much.
267
00:19:02,939 --> 00:19:04,739
Institutional is interesting too.
268
00:19:04,879 --> 00:19:06,039
Do we really want that?
269
00:19:07,019 --> 00:19:07,359
Yes.
270
00:19:07,699 --> 00:19:11,919
That's the question here because it's two-sided.
271
00:19:12,159 --> 00:19:15,859
If Bitcoin is going to succeed, for sure institutions are joining.
272
00:19:16,999 --> 00:19:24,499
But it's also a risk if they start to get too many of those, too many Bitcoin.
273
00:19:24,499 --> 00:19:26,019
so it's something that
274
00:19:26,019 --> 00:19:28,739
we'll try to balance
275
00:19:28,739 --> 00:19:30,959
the view here as well
276
00:19:30,959 --> 00:19:32,879
but there is still
277
00:19:32,879 --> 00:19:34,259
work to be done here
278
00:19:34,259 --> 00:19:36,499
yeah institutional
279
00:19:36,499 --> 00:19:39,059
I think the divider
280
00:19:39,059 --> 00:19:40,279
is like is it
281
00:19:40,279 --> 00:19:42,719
institutional on a Bitcoin
282
00:19:42,719 --> 00:19:44,479
standard or is it institutional
283
00:19:44,479 --> 00:19:46,479
on a dollar standard because
284
00:19:46,479 --> 00:19:48,959
the latter is not
285
00:19:48,959 --> 00:19:50,439
necessarily good for Bitcoin
286
00:19:50,439 --> 00:19:51,159
yes
287
00:19:51,159 --> 00:19:53,159
I fully agree
288
00:19:53,159 --> 00:19:59,859
So sure, the methodology, I guess that's what you want to dive into next year.
289
00:19:59,859 --> 00:20:04,699
Maybe let's go first to the actual dimension.
290
00:20:04,919 --> 00:20:08,659
So it's a bit more kind of glee.
291
00:20:08,659 --> 00:20:15,099
So here you see the different dimensions here that are live.
292
00:20:15,199 --> 00:20:21,259
So we have the mining here with those cores, you know, security,
293
00:20:21,579 --> 00:20:24,739
highly secure because we have a lot of ASHRAE at the moment.
294
00:20:24,739 --> 00:20:31,659
and it's still going up while, I mean, in the last six months, it's kind of stable,
295
00:20:31,919 --> 00:20:35,179
but otherwise it has been really going up a lot.
296
00:20:35,179 --> 00:20:39,999
In terms of decentralization, as discussed, we have kind of an issue here
297
00:20:39,999 --> 00:20:42,619
and we can even go deeper.
298
00:20:43,059 --> 00:20:46,639
So to get really the details, and this is the different indicators
299
00:20:46,639 --> 00:20:50,179
that are collected, you know, directly from the blockchain.
300
00:20:50,439 --> 00:20:51,579
So we have the hash rate.
301
00:20:52,419 --> 00:20:54,559
We have the hash rate stability as well.
302
00:20:54,739 --> 00:20:56,199
that we are using to score.
303
00:20:56,199 --> 00:20:58,319
Then we have the hardware concentration.
304
00:20:58,319 --> 00:21:00,959
This is something that is not often discussed,
305
00:21:00,959 --> 00:21:05,959
but it's a big, I would say, pain point in Bitcoin
306
00:21:06,499 --> 00:21:10,079
that you have only two main hardware vendor
307
00:21:10,079 --> 00:21:12,499
and they are both Chinese, right?
308
00:21:12,499 --> 00:21:14,859
Yeah, so this is the 82%,
309
00:21:14,859 --> 00:21:18,059
is that how big of a share Bitmain has
310
00:21:18,059 --> 00:21:20,159
in the hardware manufacturing?
311
00:21:20,159 --> 00:21:21,799
Bitmain and the other one.
312
00:21:21,799 --> 00:21:22,639
So they are-
313
00:21:22,639 --> 00:21:23,639
What's the other one?
314
00:21:24,739 --> 00:21:27,159
Man, it's micro-BT.
315
00:21:27,759 --> 00:21:28,079
Okay.
316
00:21:28,499 --> 00:21:28,759
Yes.
317
00:21:29,559 --> 00:21:36,659
So together, they collect 82% of the hardware of the cell.
318
00:21:37,399 --> 00:21:41,199
And, you know, that's a security concern, of course,
319
00:21:41,199 --> 00:21:45,279
if they start to, you know, to misbehave.
320
00:21:47,159 --> 00:21:50,439
Which they may already have done in the past.
321
00:21:50,439 --> 00:21:57,299
There's a lot of, maybe I'd call them suspicions rather than conspiracy theories.
322
00:21:57,739 --> 00:22:05,339
There are some things pointing to that the Bitcoin, the Bitmain devices have been doing shady things on the hardware level in the past.
323
00:22:05,639 --> 00:22:13,019
Like ASIC boost being the most obvious one, which is a patent they had that gave them a head start.
324
00:22:13,179 --> 00:22:16,839
So that's why they were against the whole SegWit upgrade, right?
325
00:22:18,159 --> 00:22:19,979
Yeah, but let's not get into that.
326
00:22:19,979 --> 00:22:21,619
We'll go on here.
327
00:22:21,619 --> 00:22:24,199
Exactly, but it scores only six here.
328
00:22:24,899 --> 00:22:26,979
And we have the top one pool share.
329
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:28,719
That's foundry at the moment.
330
00:22:29,679 --> 00:22:30,259
Wait, wait.
331
00:22:30,679 --> 00:22:32,599
Sorry, ADD brain here.
332
00:22:32,979 --> 00:22:35,419
But six out of 100, what does that mean?
333
00:22:36,319 --> 00:22:37,339
It's the score, right?
334
00:22:37,479 --> 00:22:39,819
So we try to score all these indicators
335
00:22:39,819 --> 00:22:43,759
between zero to 100.
336
00:22:44,139 --> 00:22:44,539
Okay.
337
00:22:44,739 --> 00:22:46,379
It's scoring very low.
338
00:22:46,379 --> 00:22:54,859
So it has 82% concentration means six Renaults in a how good is this score.
339
00:22:55,039 --> 00:22:55,979
Okay, I get it.
340
00:22:56,159 --> 00:22:56,239
Exactly.
341
00:22:57,039 --> 00:23:00,179
Again, this is just a formula that I'm using.
342
00:23:00,519 --> 00:23:03,179
But again, the more important is the direction.
343
00:23:03,479 --> 00:23:08,839
So if in six months you see 10, then you know that, okay, things have been going better.
344
00:23:10,019 --> 00:23:10,319
Great.
345
00:23:11,019 --> 00:23:13,999
Then we have the top one, PoolShare Foundry.
346
00:23:13,999 --> 00:23:16,979
30%, 31%.
347
00:23:16,979 --> 00:23:21,379
And what we say here is that it's okay.
348
00:23:21,559 --> 00:23:22,739
It's not that bad.
349
00:23:22,979 --> 00:23:23,619
It's not that bad.
350
00:23:23,919 --> 00:23:26,059
But what is bad is the top five pool shares
351
00:23:26,059 --> 00:23:31,539
so that only a handful of miners.
352
00:23:31,719 --> 00:23:33,999
We say pool, but they are actually the miners here.
353
00:23:34,539 --> 00:23:36,799
They decide the template and all things.
354
00:23:37,779 --> 00:23:39,939
And the signaling for B.10, for instance.
355
00:23:40,199 --> 00:23:42,239
So it's quite a big ad.
356
00:23:42,239 --> 00:23:43,779
that one is
357
00:23:43,779 --> 00:23:46,299
showing the official
358
00:23:46,299 --> 00:23:48,519
number, but the unofficial
359
00:23:48,519 --> 00:23:49,679
is worse than that
360
00:23:49,679 --> 00:23:52,499
because you have this so-called
361
00:23:52,499 --> 00:23:54,219
handpool entrance.
362
00:23:55,379 --> 00:23:56,479
Basically, all the other
363
00:23:56,479 --> 00:23:58,299
pools that are kind of attached
364
00:23:58,299 --> 00:24:00,299
to handpool
365
00:24:00,299 --> 00:24:01,959
and are doing exactly the same thing.
366
00:24:02,619 --> 00:24:04,519
So it's much higher. But anyway,
367
00:24:04,599 --> 00:24:05,339
it's going very low.
368
00:24:06,139 --> 00:24:07,239
Then, one thing, yeah?
369
00:24:08,159 --> 00:24:09,979
Yeah, just to
370
00:24:09,979 --> 00:24:11,999
dive a little deeper here.
371
00:24:12,239 --> 00:24:15,919
So the ant pool and friends, that means that they have the same owner.
372
00:24:15,919 --> 00:24:28,819
And in that case, the incentive structure around Bitcoin is still pretty secure, but less secure than it would have been if mining had been more decentralized.
373
00:24:29,279 --> 00:24:39,139
Because they can do some shady stuff, but in doing so, they're also shooting themselves in the foot because no miner wants Bitcoin to stop functioning at all.
374
00:24:39,139 --> 00:24:56,319
So I think that's like, but it does create, you know, targets for people who want to destroy Bitcoin to, you know, point a gun at and force to do reckless shit.
375
00:24:56,839 --> 00:24:58,019
So of course, it's not good.
376
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:03,859
We want the incentive structures to be more solid than just, I don't want to shoot myself in the foot.
377
00:25:04,479 --> 00:25:06,079
Yes, definitely.
378
00:25:06,079 --> 00:25:08,319
I think one of those
379
00:25:08,319 --> 00:25:09,979
friend is Brains.
380
00:25:10,139 --> 00:25:11,779
I think they are in that group.
381
00:25:12,719 --> 00:25:13,219
But
382
00:25:13,219 --> 00:25:16,339
to play the devil's advocate there,
383
00:25:16,819 --> 00:25:18,019
Brains is also the
384
00:25:18,019 --> 00:25:20,159
pool that is one of the pools
385
00:25:20,159 --> 00:25:21,759
that is offering rental hash.
386
00:25:22,179 --> 00:25:24,139
That's true. That's a good
387
00:25:24,139 --> 00:25:25,299
point, I agree.
388
00:25:28,679 --> 00:25:30,139
So that, you know, when you look
389
00:25:30,139 --> 00:25:31,859
at that, you say it's pretty bleak, but
390
00:25:31,859 --> 00:25:33,919
the fact is that in Bitcoin, it's
391
00:25:33,919 --> 00:25:34,759
really easy to
392
00:25:34,759 --> 00:25:38,319
switch as you suggested here.
393
00:25:38,319 --> 00:25:40,999
So, you know, the structural
394
00:25:40,999 --> 00:25:44,519
situation is
395
00:25:44,519 --> 00:25:47,699
maybe not great, but then the fact that
396
00:25:47,699 --> 00:25:51,099
a miner or a hasher can switch
397
00:25:51,099 --> 00:25:53,579
very easily to another pool is
398
00:25:53,579 --> 00:25:57,759
a kind of advantage of Bitcoin.
399
00:25:59,079 --> 00:26:02,099
So this is also taken into account.
400
00:26:02,279 --> 00:26:04,279
We have alternatives and one
401
00:26:04,279 --> 00:26:06,279
obvious is of course ocean
402
00:26:06,279 --> 00:26:09,559
but you know if
403
00:26:09,559 --> 00:26:11,359
one of those
404
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,159
pool miners like on pool they start to
405
00:26:14,159 --> 00:26:16,139
misbehave then you would
406
00:26:16,139 --> 00:26:17,759
see quite quickly
407
00:26:17,759 --> 00:26:20,039
migration from them to other
408
00:26:20,039 --> 00:26:22,159
pools so here we have a high
409
00:26:22,159 --> 00:26:23,819
score that's kind of balancing
410
00:26:23,819 --> 00:26:25,999
right and that's something
411
00:26:25,999 --> 00:26:27,579
that's specific to Bitcoin because
412
00:26:27,579 --> 00:26:29,399
there are many other industries where
413
00:26:29,399 --> 00:26:31,959
you are kind of it's much more difficult
414
00:26:31,959 --> 00:26:33,799
to change once you have selected
415
00:26:33,799 --> 00:26:35,779
you're provided.
416
00:26:36,019 --> 00:26:37,619
Then we have other indicators here,
417
00:26:37,679 --> 00:26:38,559
neutral pool share.
418
00:26:38,939 --> 00:26:39,499
So kind of,
419
00:26:40,679 --> 00:26:44,059
these are the ones that are not in the 90%.
420
00:26:44,059 --> 00:26:46,039
What do you mean by a neutral pool?
421
00:26:46,959 --> 00:26:48,119
Yeah, it's basically
422
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,719
the one that are,
423
00:26:50,859 --> 00:26:51,199
you know,
424
00:26:51,859 --> 00:26:56,059
not the big one that we know,
425
00:26:56,059 --> 00:26:57,479
but the ones that are doing
426
00:26:57,479 --> 00:26:58,619
a little bit of alternative
427
00:26:58,619 --> 00:27:02,419
type of operation.
428
00:27:03,099 --> 00:27:03,179
Yeah.
429
00:27:03,799 --> 00:27:08,599
Yeah, yes. So basically where you can create your own block templates and stuff like that.
430
00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:09,399
It's actually, yes.
431
00:27:11,799 --> 00:27:18,759
And then two more indicators here. So migration evidence. So we have this pull alternative is
432
00:27:18,759 --> 00:27:22,919
good, but then is there evidence that this can really happen? And we have some evidence
433
00:27:23,879 --> 00:27:29,239
from the story that this has happened. So that's something that we also measure.
434
00:27:29,239 --> 00:27:34,999
And the last one is kind of to really close the loop.
435
00:27:34,999 --> 00:27:38,939
So kind of how easy you can switch from pool to pool.
436
00:27:38,939 --> 00:27:52,797
Yeah So these are the kind of different indicators that I using And they provide you know in the end so each of them is either going to the security or the decentralization
437
00:27:53,678 --> 00:27:55,957
Sometimes they go to both, but in this case,
438
00:27:55,977 --> 00:27:57,477
it's just one or the other.
439
00:27:58,158 --> 00:28:01,977
And at the end, we have these two scores for the mining.
440
00:28:01,977 --> 00:28:06,037
So 57 on the decentralization and 80,
441
00:28:06,297 --> 00:28:07,977
so quite high for the security.
442
00:28:07,977 --> 00:28:20,658
So given this data, the biggest problem in Bitcoin is miner centralization and miner hardware centralization in particular, then according to this again.
443
00:28:21,438 --> 00:28:28,117
Exactly. While the hardware concentration is scored on the security, but yeah, you're right.
444
00:28:28,117 --> 00:28:51,237
So that's one of those. And maybe let's go to the other one. So I think it's quite related to the ongoing debate, you know, that we have on PAM. So this is the other dimension here, block space health. And again, we measure this to decentralization and security.
445
00:28:51,237 --> 00:29:13,277
And what I'm using here is really objectively on the first one, objectively, okay, it doesn't show very well, but this is the percentage of non-financial data or spam that you get on the block on average.
446
00:29:13,277 --> 00:29:20,697
So at the moment, we have 45.5% of spam in each and every block.
447
00:29:21,257 --> 00:29:27,217
And this is the last, I believe, this is the last 90 days.
448
00:29:27,418 --> 00:29:28,797
I should add it here.
449
00:29:29,037 --> 00:29:37,178
But 45% of spam in the last 90 days as measured on my node.
450
00:29:37,918 --> 00:29:41,777
And here also direction is the most important thing, right?
451
00:29:41,777 --> 00:29:43,838
whether it's increasing or decreasing.
452
00:29:44,297 --> 00:29:44,697
Exactly.
453
00:29:45,237 --> 00:29:49,658
Where would you say that the figure would go from yellow to red?
454
00:29:49,918 --> 00:29:51,857
Is that 50% or what?
455
00:29:52,737 --> 00:29:54,757
Yeah, I have a threshold.
456
00:29:54,938 --> 00:29:57,117
I don't remember now, but it's something like 60,
457
00:29:57,357 --> 00:30:00,557
probably 60, 65 would be very concerning.
458
00:30:03,158 --> 00:30:05,918
So here, you know, the score is very straightforward
459
00:30:05,918 --> 00:30:12,918
with the 54% of financial transaction.
460
00:30:12,918 --> 00:30:20,918
No, it's not transaction, it's the actual space used by the traffic or by the transaction.
461
00:30:20,918 --> 00:30:24,918
Then we have the UTXO set.
462
00:30:24,918 --> 00:30:32,918
This is another one that, you know, SPAM, it's also bloating the UTXO set.
463
00:30:32,918 --> 00:30:35,918
That's something that we measure here.
464
00:30:35,918 --> 00:30:43,438
somewhat less critical because also it has been going slightly down in the last
465
00:30:43,438 --> 00:30:51,117
couple of years actually so the direction here is more encouraging than the for the previous one
466
00:30:51,117 --> 00:31:00,217
we have also the trend for the growth that is also captured here and then the last one is the
467
00:31:00,217 --> 00:31:07,658
Sorry for interrupting, but what does that times 1.0012 mean?
468
00:31:08,217 --> 00:31:10,197
It's a trend. It's really a trend.
469
00:31:10,197 --> 00:31:15,857
So it's kind of going up, but very, very slowly, right? 1.0012.
470
00:31:16,057 --> 00:31:23,838
So does that mean that within 90 days, an average block gets 1.0012 times bigger?
471
00:31:23,997 --> 00:31:25,537
Or what does the actual figure mean?
472
00:31:25,658 --> 00:31:28,098
It's the UTXO set.
473
00:31:28,098 --> 00:31:31,158
So it's basically exactly so.
474
00:31:31,717 --> 00:31:38,497
Over 90 days, you have a growth of 1.0012, which is very little, right?
475
00:31:39,477 --> 00:31:41,697
But yeah.
476
00:31:42,398 --> 00:31:45,438
So it's the increase to the entire thing.
477
00:31:46,138 --> 00:31:46,957
Okay, okay.
478
00:31:48,037 --> 00:31:48,357
Yes.
479
00:31:49,578 --> 00:31:54,357
The last one, maybe the most related to the V30.
480
00:31:54,357 --> 00:31:56,857
So I also measure the up return.
481
00:31:56,857 --> 00:32:06,877
And basically, how many large hop returns there has been in the last, I think this one is the last.
482
00:32:08,717 --> 00:32:14,658
So here, saying in the last 30 days, we had 18 large hop returns.
483
00:32:16,037 --> 00:32:26,178
And typically, those are mined by nowadays by marathon, spider pool, also F2 pool.
484
00:32:26,178 --> 00:32:29,398
but lately, actually just last week,
485
00:32:29,517 --> 00:32:33,117
Foundry started also to mine those large or preterm.
486
00:32:34,237 --> 00:32:40,197
So by large, we mean above, you know, 80 bytes,
487
00:32:40,318 --> 00:32:43,098
but what I'm actually counting,
488
00:32:43,257 --> 00:32:46,578
I'm counting only those that are larger than one kilobyte.
489
00:32:47,877 --> 00:32:53,377
So, you know, but you can have very different size here.
490
00:32:53,377 --> 00:33:02,418
maybe some are about one kilobyte some are about 100 kilobytes so and what's usually in those what
491
00:33:02,418 --> 00:33:09,957
what is the shit data is it pictures or moving pictures or what it's it's it's it's it's it can
492
00:33:09,957 --> 00:33:19,797
be it can be anything right uh but but i think so far they are kind of uh quite you know uh
493
00:33:19,797 --> 00:33:21,818
neutral, I would say.
494
00:33:21,918 --> 00:33:23,438
Not kind of
495
00:33:23,438 --> 00:33:24,737
problematic.
496
00:33:25,717 --> 00:33:27,717
I think yesterday I saw one mine
497
00:33:27,717 --> 00:33:29,197
by Mara
498
00:33:29,197 --> 00:33:31,418
and it seemed to be the
499
00:33:31,418 --> 00:33:32,777
white paper that was
500
00:33:32,777 --> 00:33:35,197
the Bitcoin white paper that was
501
00:33:35,197 --> 00:33:36,977
included there
502
00:33:36,977 --> 00:33:39,438
because it was saying PDF.
503
00:33:40,477 --> 00:33:41,617
Actually, we can even
504
00:33:41,617 --> 00:33:43,617
go there. Let's, you know, I can show
505
00:33:43,617 --> 00:33:45,117
you. You can get it.
506
00:33:46,117 --> 00:33:47,517
You can get, you can
507
00:33:47,517 --> 00:33:49,457
drill down here, get more
508
00:33:49,457 --> 00:33:51,438
details and let's see
509
00:33:51,438 --> 00:33:53,257
what
510
00:33:53,257 --> 00:33:54,377
Mara was mining.
511
00:33:56,217 --> 00:33:57,438
So that's the one,
512
00:33:57,658 --> 00:33:59,477
right? And then
513
00:33:59,477 --> 00:34:00,918
we go to my pool.
514
00:34:01,158 --> 00:34:03,197
And we see the larger
515
00:34:03,197 --> 00:34:04,297
return. That's the one.
516
00:34:05,237 --> 00:34:07,377
And then we go there and
517
00:34:07,377 --> 00:34:08,038
we see
518
00:34:08,038 --> 00:34:11,238
white paper, Bitcoin white
519
00:34:11,238 --> 00:34:13,058
paper, and then
520
00:34:13,058 --> 00:34:14,018
PDF.
521
00:34:15,297 --> 00:34:17,198
So likely the Bitcoin
522
00:34:17,198 --> 00:34:19,038
white paper. But anyway, you know,
523
00:34:19,038 --> 00:34:28,457
So that's not something I'm going to dig too much because I said, you know, that can be, we don't know what there is there.
524
00:34:29,038 --> 00:34:31,957
But from the mail bulldog guide, we can have an idea.
525
00:34:33,177 --> 00:34:41,817
Yeah, it's ironic that the white paper is included like that, spamming the chain, because why not use a hash of it?
526
00:34:41,817 --> 00:34:49,518
Very ironic that putting the white paper actually makes Bitcoin a teeny tiny bit worse as a medium of exchange over time.
527
00:34:50,097 --> 00:34:54,097
The irony of that is just mind-boggling that someone would do that.
528
00:34:54,998 --> 00:34:56,337
Yes, I fully agree.
529
00:34:57,538 --> 00:35:03,998
There has been some campaigns, some waves of spam on the pre-turn.
530
00:35:04,477 --> 00:35:07,637
Was it in April, March, April, I think this year?
531
00:35:07,637 --> 00:35:10,938
There was some kind of text.
532
00:35:10,938 --> 00:35:17,457
it was text you know bragging about you know we okay we are spamming now so it's kind of uh
533
00:35:17,457 --> 00:35:25,377
yeah shit coinery i'd call it yeah yeah yeah exactly so but yeah we we have those uh those
534
00:35:25,377 --> 00:35:30,637
dimension and the last one that is uh that is live is the nodes this one is quite straightforward
535
00:35:30,637 --> 00:35:39,077
simple and i'm using uh by the way look dash here uh site there to collect the data i used to go to
536
00:35:39,077 --> 00:35:44,157
bitnode.io, but now the site is kind of shut down.
537
00:35:44,278 --> 00:35:44,877
I don't know why.
538
00:35:45,938 --> 00:35:51,738
So, but anyway, we have very good data also from Luke sites.
539
00:35:52,438 --> 00:35:57,038
So total number of nodes and then implementation diversity.
540
00:35:57,038 --> 00:36:02,758
So this is 74% of core of various versions.
541
00:36:04,218 --> 00:36:06,977
And then we have different score here.
542
00:36:06,977 --> 00:36:09,157
So here I'm saying it's pretty good.
543
00:36:09,238 --> 00:36:10,218
Oh, it's actually very good.
544
00:36:10,938 --> 00:36:13,777
We have 100,000, close to 100,000 nodes.
545
00:36:15,938 --> 00:36:21,777
Probably enough, you know, to have a centralization on the Bitcoin network.
546
00:36:22,097 --> 00:36:25,337
But okay, I'm pretty sure some would say, no, that's not enough.
547
00:36:25,438 --> 00:36:26,357
We would need 1 million.
548
00:36:27,137 --> 00:36:30,398
But okay, you know, you need to kind of decide.
549
00:36:30,857 --> 00:36:33,018
And again, the direction is the more important here.
550
00:36:33,018 --> 00:36:39,477
however on the on the you know diversity of implementation here i'm scoring quite low
551
00:36:39,477 --> 00:36:45,237
because this is definitely the 74 risk is really uh just for core space really kind of
552
00:36:45,237 --> 00:36:51,837
not so good i would say yeah some people would argue that that is a good thing though if uh
553
00:36:51,837 --> 00:37:01,198
which would somewhat be true if uh if everyone if that was implementation was all good and
554
00:37:01,198 --> 00:37:06,277
people didn't have any objections to that implementation.
555
00:37:06,557 --> 00:37:14,337
But I think it's very healthy for the network to now get several implementations developed
556
00:37:14,337 --> 00:37:16,277
and introduced.
557
00:37:16,518 --> 00:37:24,377
At the end of the day, Bitcoin is first and foremost dependent on people voluntarily choosing
558
00:37:24,377 --> 00:37:26,817
what software to run and what hardware to buy.
559
00:37:26,817 --> 00:37:36,078
like that's even a layer deeper than proof of work yes for sure yes okay so that's about the site
560
00:37:36,078 --> 00:37:44,578
and maybe one last view on the on the live so here if you want to to see the latest what what
561
00:37:44,578 --> 00:37:51,837
is happening on the network you get most of the interesting metrics here so uh one of those boxes
562
00:37:51,837 --> 00:37:59,998
say NOTS and it's green, like NOTS adoption is going up? Is the site neutral in that sense,
563
00:37:59,998 --> 00:38:02,957
or does it just view NOTS as a good thing in general?
564
00:38:02,957 --> 00:38:07,677
No, it's a good question. It's totally neutral. So it's just reflecting that it's
565
00:38:07,677 --> 00:38:11,277
plus, so more diversity basically.
566
00:38:11,277 --> 00:38:14,877
Yeah, because NOTS is the second largest implementation.
567
00:38:14,877 --> 00:38:19,597
Correct. And then you have the alerts, you know, like yesterday, we had the
568
00:38:19,597 --> 00:38:23,597
larger return and so on. And if you want more details, you can go to those
569
00:38:23,597 --> 00:38:27,637
box that are actually pointing to the page
570
00:38:27,637 --> 00:38:31,677
that we had in the previous sites. So all
571
00:38:31,677 --> 00:38:34,677
the details, all the detailed metrics, they are here.
572
00:38:36,058 --> 00:38:39,117
Nice. Yeah, so here it's really
573
00:38:39,117 --> 00:38:43,038
block by block how much of
574
00:38:43,038 --> 00:38:47,837
a spam you have. Yeah, so that's
575
00:38:47,837 --> 00:38:49,518
where we are with the Bitcoin portal.
576
00:38:50,857 --> 00:38:59,418
And in addition, yeah, I'm trying to write every week or a bit less nowadays, but, you
577
00:38:59,418 --> 00:39:01,777
know, the latest.
578
00:39:02,177 --> 00:39:08,557
So I also have this newsletter where I kind of expose the latest information that I can
579
00:39:08,557 --> 00:39:14,317
see from the blockchain related to spam, related to, well.
580
00:39:14,317 --> 00:39:17,657
So about BIP-110 there
581
00:39:17,657 --> 00:39:19,438
and the adoption of BIP-110
582
00:39:19,438 --> 00:39:21,718
is there any way to see those metrics
583
00:39:21,718 --> 00:39:23,297
like how that's going?
584
00:39:23,538 --> 00:39:25,837
Yes, it's here. So here it says
585
00:39:25,837 --> 00:39:27,817
zero block, right? So that's
586
00:39:27,817 --> 00:39:29,998
a little bit the pain point at the moment
587
00:39:29,998 --> 00:39:31,398
But that's
588
00:39:31,398 --> 00:39:33,778
within a 24 hour period and not
589
00:39:33,778 --> 00:39:35,377
a 90 day period. Yeah, it is
590
00:39:35,377 --> 00:39:37,078
So you can go
591
00:39:37,078 --> 00:39:39,817
here, I believe, and then you have
592
00:39:39,817 --> 00:39:40,578
the BIP-110
593
00:39:40,578 --> 00:39:43,278
And you see it's
594
00:39:43,278 --> 00:39:44,198
we are
595
00:39:44,317 --> 00:39:50,157
And again, this is coming from Luke's page.
596
00:39:50,617 --> 00:40:00,438
So 8.16% of the nodes are basically running B.10 at the moment.
597
00:40:01,218 --> 00:40:02,237
I think it's growing.
598
00:40:02,237 --> 00:40:06,337
The latest news on the nodes, I think you know, of course,
599
00:40:06,477 --> 00:40:13,137
but I think nowadays B.10 is integrated directly to the nodes.
600
00:40:13,137 --> 00:40:18,077
I'm not sure if that's already out or not.
601
00:40:19,018 --> 00:40:26,597
I think it is, and it's the latest Nodes version that's been out there for a week or so, maybe two weeks.
602
00:40:27,177 --> 00:40:32,857
So if you run the latest version of Nodes, you will automatically be signaling for BIP1.10.
603
00:40:32,857 --> 00:40:38,718
And another thing I learned is that as a miner, you have to signal for it.
604
00:40:38,718 --> 00:40:43,617
You can't just tweak your filters to only allow compatible transactions.
605
00:40:43,617 --> 00:40:47,477
You need to actually signal for the block to be valid.
606
00:40:47,817 --> 00:40:48,018
Correct.
607
00:40:49,918 --> 00:40:50,438
That's true.
608
00:40:50,558 --> 00:40:52,297
By the way, are you mining?
609
00:40:53,377 --> 00:40:53,898
Are you renting?
610
00:40:54,498 --> 00:40:55,837
No, not at the moment.
611
00:40:56,077 --> 00:40:57,957
I've been focusing on other things.
612
00:40:58,038 --> 00:41:03,337
I was mining over the winter, but I haven't done the whole hash renting thing yet.
613
00:41:04,077 --> 00:41:06,077
I'm embarrassed to say.
614
00:41:06,077 --> 00:41:09,057
I've had a little too much else on my plate.
615
00:41:11,137 --> 00:41:11,918
Same here.
616
00:41:12,477 --> 00:41:15,677
I'm really going to do it, but I didn't find the time yet.
617
00:41:16,657 --> 00:41:19,438
So if you scroll down there to the, what do we have?
618
00:41:19,617 --> 00:41:20,418
Signaling trend.
619
00:41:20,557 --> 00:41:22,218
That's the minor signaling, right?
620
00:41:22,218 --> 00:41:23,457
That's the minor signaling.
621
00:41:23,777 --> 00:41:24,398
Yeah, exactly.
622
00:41:24,857 --> 00:41:30,817
But we had two minor signaling, right?
623
00:41:30,977 --> 00:41:33,137
We have barefoot.
624
00:41:33,938 --> 00:41:44,976
Yeah bobber net Yes Bob Burnett And then another one I think Alberta or 234 four Alberta something Yeah yeah yeah the guy from Alberta there Yeah that super cool
625
00:41:47,036 --> 00:41:49,637
Alberta independence in action.
626
00:41:50,637 --> 00:41:51,516
Yes, right.
627
00:41:51,976 --> 00:41:52,716
So, yeah.
628
00:41:53,936 --> 00:41:55,776
So that's what we have here.
629
00:41:55,776 --> 00:42:04,776
You have some kind of latest news, what has happened on those different dimensions.
630
00:42:05,016 --> 00:42:05,256
Yeah.
631
00:42:06,396 --> 00:42:07,956
Yes, a very nice site.
632
00:42:08,076 --> 00:42:12,356
I'm looking forward to seeing how it develops over the coming months here.
633
00:42:12,356 --> 00:42:16,736
Maybe we could stop the screen share now if you've shown all the things.
634
00:42:17,096 --> 00:42:18,976
Yes, I'm sharing.
635
00:42:19,416 --> 00:42:22,196
So what's your prediction for the future here?
636
00:42:22,296 --> 00:42:25,976
How do you think the whole BIP-110 thing plays out?
637
00:42:26,576 --> 00:42:30,276
What's your best guess of what will happen in August?
638
00:42:30,956 --> 00:42:31,236
Yes.
639
00:42:31,236 --> 00:42:34,276
I think it's
640
00:42:34,276 --> 00:42:35,936
there are different things
641
00:42:35,936 --> 00:42:36,956
what I
642
00:42:36,956 --> 00:42:39,756
what I wanted to say
643
00:42:39,756 --> 00:42:42,436
and what I wrote also in my newsletter
644
00:42:42,436 --> 00:42:43,236
is that
645
00:42:43,236 --> 00:42:45,816
B.10 you have to
646
00:42:45,816 --> 00:42:48,496
see it also as an ID
647
00:42:48,496 --> 00:42:50,276
right so B.10 is
648
00:42:50,276 --> 00:42:51,636
an ID is a kind of
649
00:42:51,636 --> 00:42:53,256
but as it's a statement
650
00:42:53,256 --> 00:42:55,276
and the statement is
651
00:42:55,276 --> 00:42:58,456
we don't want or we reject
652
00:42:58,456 --> 00:42:59,656
the large file
653
00:42:59,656 --> 00:43:01,136
use case
654
00:43:01,136 --> 00:43:02,336
on Bitcoin.
655
00:43:03,456 --> 00:43:05,216
And that's Bit.10.
656
00:43:05,636 --> 00:43:07,156
And that's first, that's an ID.
657
00:43:07,996 --> 00:43:11,056
And then that ID has been implemented.
658
00:43:11,516 --> 00:43:13,236
And now we have the software
659
00:43:13,236 --> 00:43:15,296
and the nodes.
660
00:43:15,996 --> 00:43:17,916
So node runners can,
661
00:43:18,096 --> 00:43:21,336
if they want, run that software.
662
00:43:21,576 --> 00:43:22,496
So we have it.
663
00:43:23,436 --> 00:43:25,676
And what I think is that
664
00:43:25,676 --> 00:43:27,396
this side is not going to disappear.
665
00:43:27,556 --> 00:43:28,696
It's not going anywhere.
666
00:43:28,696 --> 00:43:31,476
and there are more and more people
667
00:43:31,476 --> 00:43:33,956
who want to follow that ID
668
00:43:33,956 --> 00:43:37,036
and to kind of also express that ID
669
00:43:37,036 --> 00:43:37,836
with their nodes.
670
00:43:38,176 --> 00:43:39,196
So that's the first thing.
671
00:43:39,296 --> 00:43:39,956
And the second thing,
672
00:43:40,036 --> 00:43:40,916
what happens in August?
673
00:43:41,236 --> 00:43:41,836
Well, you know,
674
00:43:42,117 --> 00:43:43,256
B.10 will activate
675
00:43:43,256 --> 00:43:46,896
and what it means
676
00:43:46,896 --> 00:43:47,876
is that all the nodes
677
00:43:47,876 --> 00:43:49,356
that run B.10
678
00:43:49,356 --> 00:43:51,296
are going to reject blocks
679
00:43:51,296 --> 00:43:54,256
that are not conformant to B.10,
680
00:43:54,336 --> 00:43:57,136
meaning that have spam in them.
681
00:43:57,336 --> 00:43:58,456
So it could be that a miner
682
00:43:58,456 --> 00:44:00,916
is not signaling for B.10,
683
00:44:01,176 --> 00:44:02,496
not really supporting,
684
00:44:03,056 --> 00:44:06,676
but not adding spam to the block.
685
00:44:06,776 --> 00:44:07,996
So that block would go through,
686
00:44:08,936 --> 00:44:10,476
you know, to those nodes.
687
00:44:11,976 --> 00:44:12,576
Really?
688
00:44:13,136 --> 00:44:15,576
Because that's the thing I heard
689
00:44:15,576 --> 00:44:18,296
that you need to signal
690
00:44:18,296 --> 00:44:20,096
for the block to go through,
691
00:44:20,196 --> 00:44:21,276
but that's not true then?
692
00:44:21,276 --> 00:44:24,476
I think if the block is kind of,
693
00:44:24,596 --> 00:44:27,916
you know, in line with B.10 rules,
694
00:44:27,916 --> 00:44:30,156
it should go in, I would say.
695
00:44:31,496 --> 00:44:34,756
Yeah, that sounds like that would work,
696
00:44:34,856 --> 00:44:37,236
but I heard from someone, I can't remember who,
697
00:44:37,796 --> 00:44:40,596
that that is not the case, that you need to signal.
698
00:44:41,016 --> 00:44:42,716
Let me verify that.
699
00:44:43,396 --> 00:44:50,096
But anyway, so then if you have a block that is not B.1.10 aligned,
700
00:44:50,096 --> 00:44:52,556
then it will be rejected by those nodes.
701
00:44:53,836 --> 00:44:57,576
So the question is, and I think this look dash here,
702
00:44:57,576 --> 00:44:59,716
is kind of expressing this quite well.
703
00:44:59,776 --> 00:45:03,276
The question is how much miners will want to support spam.
704
00:45:03,496 --> 00:45:04,856
And that's really the question here.
705
00:45:05,856 --> 00:45:09,736
Do they have a strong opinion that spam is a must, is needed,
706
00:45:09,976 --> 00:45:12,096
and especially the large file spam, right?
707
00:45:12,656 --> 00:45:15,696
Because there is plenty of spam, or so-called spam,
708
00:45:15,876 --> 00:45:17,836
that B.10 is not targeting.
709
00:45:18,776 --> 00:45:20,536
So you have this small op return,
710
00:45:20,536 --> 00:45:23,976
all the runes they will go through, like they do today.
711
00:45:23,976 --> 00:45:34,676
So the question is, will the miner in a position and make the statement that they want this support spam on Bitcoin?
712
00:45:35,516 --> 00:45:38,576
Or will they say, okay, we don't have a strong opinion.
713
00:45:38,796 --> 00:45:43,216
Maybe it's better that, you know, we go along here.
714
00:45:44,117 --> 00:45:52,696
And I mean, logically, I would say they would go to the second option and they will decide to go along.
715
00:45:53,976 --> 00:45:58,216
so that we will activate smoothly with no chain split,
716
00:45:58,496 --> 00:46:00,816
and then we continue from there.
717
00:46:01,956 --> 00:46:05,896
That's my guess, but there are a lot of unknowns.
718
00:46:05,896 --> 00:46:08,696
There are a lot of incentives that we don't know about,
719
00:46:09,596 --> 00:46:11,956
so that makes things more difficult to predict.
720
00:46:12,976 --> 00:46:18,617
Yeah, I've heard that around 10% of the nodes need to signal for this
721
00:46:18,617 --> 00:46:22,876
for it to make sense for the miners to give a shit about it, basically,
722
00:46:22,876 --> 00:46:27,176
because if it's smaller than that, it's not really going to change anything.
723
00:46:27,416 --> 00:46:32,316
But yeah, I don't know the deeper technicalities of it.
724
00:46:32,616 --> 00:46:37,716
You can like, subscribe, brush your teeth, and call me an idiot in the comments below if you want.
725
00:46:37,976 --> 00:46:38,936
I enjoy that.
726
00:46:39,096 --> 00:46:42,716
And educate me on these topics if you'd like to do so.
727
00:46:42,716 --> 00:46:44,796
there's a theory that if
728
00:46:44,796 --> 00:46:46,776
a non-compliant block
729
00:46:46,776 --> 00:46:48,736
is mined and then
730
00:46:48,736 --> 00:46:50,756
the miners just choose
731
00:46:50,756 --> 00:46:52,856
to keep on mining on that
732
00:46:52,856 --> 00:46:54,156
chain instead of switching
733
00:46:54,156 --> 00:46:56,276
to the other as they should
734
00:46:56,276 --> 00:46:58,876
then the whole
735
00:46:58,876 --> 00:47:00,576
thing is a nothing burger because
736
00:47:00,576 --> 00:47:02,916
everything, all that will happen is that
737
00:47:02,916 --> 00:47:04,836
these, is that we
738
00:47:04,836 --> 00:47:06,776
that are signaling for it
739
00:47:06,776 --> 00:47:08,756
will just not
740
00:47:08,756 --> 00:47:10,556
be on the largest
741
00:47:10,556 --> 00:47:11,996
chain anymore but
742
00:47:11,996 --> 00:47:17,416
Well, I'm bad at explaining this stuff, but what are your thoughts?
743
00:47:17,756 --> 00:47:19,716
Yeah, that would be the challenge if, you know,
744
00:47:19,716 --> 00:47:28,656
if we have a chain split and then the B.10 chain is having a small hash rate,
745
00:47:29,256 --> 00:47:36,056
it means you mine a block, not every 10 minutes, but much longer than that, right?
746
00:47:36,796 --> 00:47:41,336
So then you have new blocks every day or depending how much hash rate you have.
747
00:47:41,996 --> 00:47:48,436
Yeah, and then it'll take a long time for difficulty to just to get back to 10 minutes or so.
748
00:47:50,056 --> 00:47:58,276
I mean, that's what happened to when Bitcoin Cash forked off, they had to manually adjust the difficulty adjustment.
749
00:47:58,556 --> 00:47:58,796
Yes.
750
00:47:59,216 --> 00:48:03,056
And in doing so, proving that they were not decentralized at all.
751
00:48:03,476 --> 00:48:06,296
So proving that they weren't Bitcoin.
752
00:48:06,516 --> 00:48:08,256
So I found that ironic.
753
00:48:08,256 --> 00:48:14,336
So I certainly hope that this doesn't happen with BIP110 because it's not a hard fork.
754
00:48:14,936 --> 00:48:15,496
No.
755
00:48:15,976 --> 00:48:25,216
And there's no, I mean, if you don't want a hard fork, you should just, and you're a miner, you should just signal for it and run it.
756
00:48:25,416 --> 00:48:32,436
Because that won't affect anyone in any negative way except certain spammers.
757
00:48:32,896 --> 00:48:33,656
Yes, exactly.
758
00:48:33,656 --> 00:48:41,236
but again regardless of what happens and i think that i'm optimist on on this one
759
00:48:41,236 --> 00:48:50,856
um you know the the id and the the need and the desire for a spam free or spam mitigated
760
00:48:50,856 --> 00:48:56,696
bitcoin is not going to disappear it's not going to go anywhere how do you kill that id really
761
00:48:56,696 --> 00:48:58,676
that's really the question
762
00:48:58,676 --> 00:49:01,036
yeah and also
763
00:49:01,036 --> 00:49:02,576
come August
764
00:49:02,576 --> 00:49:04,876
there's a theory that
765
00:49:04,876 --> 00:49:07,236
like there's
766
00:49:07,236 --> 00:49:09,117
right now there's no real
767
00:49:09,117 --> 00:49:10,996
advantage to being the first miner
768
00:49:10,996 --> 00:49:12,596
to signal for it but
769
00:49:12,596 --> 00:49:14,996
once one big
770
00:49:14,996 --> 00:49:16,656
miner starts to signal for it or
771
00:49:16,656 --> 00:49:18,956
a couple of them then it
772
00:49:18,956 --> 00:49:20,117
will sort of snowball
773
00:49:20,117 --> 00:49:23,076
because all of a sudden it makes a lot of sense
774
00:49:23,076 --> 00:49:24,796
to signal for it whereas
775
00:49:24,796 --> 00:49:27,836
when no one's signaling for it, it makes less sense.
776
00:49:28,576 --> 00:49:29,276
Yes, exactly.
777
00:49:29,436 --> 00:49:31,196
I think that's also explained a lot
778
00:49:31,196 --> 00:49:36,056
because, you know, especially the big one like Foundry,
779
00:49:36,516 --> 00:49:39,356
you know, they kind of probably take their decision.
780
00:49:40,876 --> 00:49:43,436
They take really time to make their decision, right?
781
00:49:43,536 --> 00:49:46,536
So it could be that they are still evaluating
782
00:49:46,536 --> 00:49:50,496
and they target to decide end of this quarter
783
00:49:50,496 --> 00:49:53,036
and then implement next quarter.
784
00:49:53,176 --> 00:49:53,596
Let's see.
785
00:49:54,796 --> 00:49:56,617
Yeah, fingers crossed.
786
00:49:56,916 --> 00:49:57,156
Yeah.
787
00:49:57,576 --> 00:50:03,156
It's this or then they really have a stronger desire for spam.
788
00:50:05,196 --> 00:50:05,956
Yeah.
789
00:50:07,556 --> 00:50:15,976
So given that you're a fiat-minded high-time preference bullshit miner,
790
00:50:16,536 --> 00:50:21,616
so what's the trade-off for an actor such as what's it called,
791
00:50:22,556 --> 00:50:24,376
Parasite Pool?
792
00:50:24,796 --> 00:50:28,276
The trade-off is risk losing all the blocks,
793
00:50:29,136 --> 00:50:35,116
and the reward you get for that is the extra fees collected from the spam,
794
00:50:35,116 --> 00:50:40,836
which is still minuscule in comparison to the block reward, right?
795
00:50:40,956 --> 00:50:44,816
So the fee part of the block subsidy is much smaller,
796
00:50:45,336 --> 00:50:48,776
or the fee part that comes from spam is much smaller.
797
00:50:49,636 --> 00:50:54,016
So that's why it wouldn't make sense to them to risk losing the blocks.
798
00:50:54,796 --> 00:51:00,636
Yeah, the fee part from spam is way less than 1% of the revenue.
799
00:51:01,376 --> 00:51:01,596
Yeah.
800
00:51:02,296 --> 00:51:04,356
It's like 0.1.
801
00:51:04,816 --> 00:51:08,616
Yeah, 0.235 or something like that, I've heard estimates.
802
00:51:09,336 --> 00:51:14,356
But it's still super small, so it would make no sense to keep on doing that.
803
00:51:14,356 --> 00:51:22,236
however there might be ways we we don't see like if they get a a briefcase full of dollars
804
00:51:22,236 --> 00:51:27,156
under the table for for doing this stuff and it's a nation-state attack or something
805
00:51:27,156 --> 00:51:35,276
like there might be thing unseen variables here who knows but yeah what can we do except
806
00:51:35,276 --> 00:51:42,296
wait and run our nodes and rent the hash power and see what happens yes exactly but did you say
807
00:51:42,296 --> 00:51:45,076
at 10% of the nodes
808
00:51:45,076 --> 00:51:47,956
or is it 10% of the miner
809
00:51:47,956 --> 00:51:51,956
that should signal for it to make sense?
810
00:51:52,556 --> 00:51:55,536
I think it's 10% of the nodes.
811
00:51:56,096 --> 00:51:58,796
Because, I mean, we are very close, right?
812
00:51:59,556 --> 00:52:00,236
Yeah, we are.
813
00:52:00,416 --> 00:52:03,016
Most likely we'll be much higher than that in August.
814
00:52:03,876 --> 00:52:05,476
Especially if it's mandatory
815
00:52:05,476 --> 00:52:07,136
for all nodes to do it,
816
00:52:07,136 --> 00:52:08,896
then it should be around 20%.
817
00:52:08,896 --> 00:52:10,756
So we should be far beyond the threshold.
818
00:52:10,756 --> 00:52:14,076
Of course, all of this is theoretical.
819
00:52:14,536 --> 00:52:20,976
The way I see it, Bitcoin is something to be studied rather than having opinions about.
820
00:52:21,236 --> 00:52:26,036
From a certain perspective, we'll just have to wait and see how reality plays out.
821
00:52:26,336 --> 00:52:28,936
It's so complex, so many moving parts.
822
00:52:29,756 --> 00:52:31,356
Yeah, it's super simple.
823
00:52:31,636 --> 00:52:33,156
The basic idea is super simple.
824
00:52:33,356 --> 00:52:36,756
Money with a finite supply and it's information.
825
00:52:37,696 --> 00:52:40,096
So you keep the key in your head and that's it.
826
00:52:40,096 --> 00:52:45,796
But how that works under the hood, it quite quickly gets quite complicated.
827
00:52:46,316 --> 00:52:47,356
And no one really knows.
828
00:52:47,476 --> 00:52:51,256
I don't think a single person knows how it actually works in reality.
829
00:52:51,256 --> 00:53:00,096
Because it's not only theoretical, but it's entirely dependent on what software and hardware people choose to buy and run.
830
00:53:00,696 --> 00:53:06,436
So that's what makes it so hard to predict future events in it.
831
00:53:06,656 --> 00:53:07,156
Yeah, awesome.
832
00:53:07,156 --> 00:53:12,536
What else? Is there another topic that we haven't covered that you would like to get into?
833
00:53:13,676 --> 00:53:15,676
No, I think that was really good.
834
00:53:15,876 --> 00:53:18,396
Yeah, I think everybody's focused on BIP 110, right?
835
00:53:18,896 --> 00:53:19,676
That's the big thing.
836
00:53:20,856 --> 00:53:22,156
Yeah, and I'm...
837
00:53:22,716 --> 00:53:23,156
Exciting times.
838
00:53:23,696 --> 00:53:32,136
Very exciting times, and I'm happy to see that my episode with Matthew Cratter is getting such attention.
839
00:53:33,796 --> 00:53:35,876
Yeah, it's great to see.
840
00:53:35,876 --> 00:53:42,116
So is there anywhere else on the web where you would like to point people to?
841
00:53:43,596 --> 00:53:45,656
Yeah, so the Bitcoin portal.
842
00:53:45,876 --> 00:53:48,296
And then from there, anyway, you can find the newsletter.
843
00:53:49,076 --> 00:53:50,516
But I am on Substack as well.
844
00:53:50,756 --> 00:53:52,416
And then I have a X account.
845
00:53:53,716 --> 00:53:53,916
Yeah.
846
00:53:53,996 --> 00:53:55,116
Are you on Nostra too?
847
00:53:55,956 --> 00:53:59,576
Yes, but I don't post often enough.
848
00:54:00,016 --> 00:54:01,036
I forget.
849
00:54:01,456 --> 00:54:02,056
I'm there.
850
00:54:02,456 --> 00:54:03,256
Same here.
851
00:54:03,256 --> 00:54:05,256
I see it as a lifeboat.
852
00:54:05,876 --> 00:54:06,436
Yes.
853
00:54:07,036 --> 00:54:09,256
More than anything at this point anyway.
854
00:54:09,456 --> 00:54:11,516
I hope it takes off better, but yeah.
855
00:54:13,076 --> 00:54:17,716
So go follow Renault and go check out the Bitcoin portal.
856
00:54:18,556 --> 00:54:20,616
Go rent some hash if you want to do that.
857
00:54:21,536 --> 00:54:25,176
And yeah, it's going to be exciting times up ahead.
858
00:54:25,336 --> 00:54:26,656
Something is happening in Bitcoin.
859
00:54:26,656 --> 00:54:35,396
Bitcoin immune system is reacting to something that it thinks is a virus.
860
00:54:35,396 --> 00:54:38,116
will see how much damage the virus does
861
00:54:38,116 --> 00:54:40,156
and if the immune system is able to
862
00:54:40,156 --> 00:54:41,836
direct the virus somewhere else,
863
00:54:42,036 --> 00:54:43,116
preferably to Ethereum.
864
00:54:44,576 --> 00:54:48,556
And yeah, what can we do
865
00:54:48,556 --> 00:54:51,016
except sit back and enjoy our popcorn?
866
00:54:53,116 --> 00:54:53,456
Yes.
867
00:54:55,476 --> 00:54:57,496
Anyway, thank you very much
868
00:54:57,496 --> 00:54:58,716
for this conversation, Renaud.
869
00:54:58,936 --> 00:55:02,676
And I wish you the best of luck in the future.
870
00:55:02,896 --> 00:55:05,216
Are you going to any of the conferences this year?
871
00:55:05,396 --> 00:55:09,076
Yeah, I was planning to go to Helsinki ETC conference.
872
00:55:09,076 --> 00:55:10,076
Fantastic.
873
00:55:10,076 --> 00:55:12,896
I'll most likely be there, yes.
874
00:55:12,896 --> 00:55:15,956
But not to Prague?
875
00:55:15,956 --> 00:55:16,956
No.
876
00:55:16,956 --> 00:55:17,956
No.
877
00:55:17,956 --> 00:55:18,956
It's time.
878
00:55:18,956 --> 00:55:19,956
All right.
879
00:55:19,956 --> 00:55:23,576
So yet another reason to come to Helsinki.
880
00:55:23,576 --> 00:55:26,076
Use code Infinity for a discount, of course.
881
00:55:26,076 --> 00:55:33,336
And in Helsinki, you will definitely get to meet me and Luke because this is our conference,
882
00:55:33,355 --> 00:55:39,395
tied a bunch of other great Finnish Bitcoiners. It's the second year we do it now and in a bigger
883
00:55:39,395 --> 00:55:46,095
venue and it's going to be a great event. I just know it. Handpicking speakers is something else.
884
00:55:46,455 --> 00:55:51,955
It's absolutely love that event. Use CodeInfinity for that and for all other conferences as well,
885
00:55:52,195 --> 00:55:57,775
but just try it. And Helsinki is also going to be interesting for the reason that
886
00:55:57,775 --> 00:56:04,195
we will know what happened to BIP110 at that point, in all likelihood.
887
00:56:06,735 --> 00:56:08,655
So that's going to be very exciting.
888
00:56:09,655 --> 00:56:11,595
Yeah, looking forward to it a lot.
889
00:56:12,115 --> 00:56:13,275
And to everything else.
890
00:56:13,795 --> 00:56:17,155
But anyway, this has been the Bitcoin Infinity Show.
891
00:56:17,575 --> 00:56:20,315
Like, subscribe, brush your teeth, rent some hash,
892
00:56:20,555 --> 00:56:23,055
and go follow Renault on social media.
893
00:56:23,315 --> 00:56:25,475
And check out thebitcoinportal.com.
894
00:56:25,795 --> 00:56:27,015
See you in the next one.
895
00:56:27,015 --> 00:56:27,935
see you
896
00:56:27,935 --> 00:56:29,035
bye
897
00:56:29,035 --> 00:56:29,895
thank you bye