Bitcoin and Beyond: Dylan LeClair on the Future of Bitcoin - FFS #76

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It's like very, very much simple why this, this story will continue,

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why, you know, why there's going to be no secular top for Bitcoin.

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There's not going to be.

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This one final peak and then it all, you know, the story was great,

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but it all comes crumbling down.

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It's like, what, causes this story that's been proliferating this

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idea, this network that's been proliferating since 2009 to stop?

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That's the real question everyone should be asking.

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because yeah, there could be lapses in momentum and drawdowns and hiccups and

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speed bumps, but what's, what causes this idea to stop and actually reverse?

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And there is no answer.

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and there is no good answer to that Is

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Welcome back to the Freedom Footprint Show, the Bitcoin

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philosophy show with Knut Svanholm and me, Luke the Pseudo Finn.

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And our guest today is Dylan LeClair.

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You might know him for his fantastic Bitcoin analysis, everything from

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on chain to talking about macro situations, things like that.

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We, to be honest, we haven't really had someone who's who's that much of an

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expert in this topic on the show before.

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So really excited to have you, Dylan.

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Welcome to the Freedom Footprint Show.

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Thanks so much, guys.

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Yeah, I'm really happy to be here and happy we could make this work.

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Yeah, good to see you Dylan.

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Last time we saw you in real life was in Riga.

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We tried to pull off an interview there, but couldn't find the time.

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There's so much going on in Riga, so we're doing it now instead.

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And yeah, could you give us a TLDR on Dylan LeClair and also how

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did you find Bitcoin and what did you find so compelling about it?

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What's your, what's your orange pill story?

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Yeah, totally.

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Um, I've gone through it a bit before, so it won't make it too long winded.

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But, essentially was, was always a math numbers guy, uh, started studying

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business and finance sort of topics very, very deeply, uh, when I was in

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high school, before I went to university.

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you know, Warren Buffett style, like value investing, um, you know,

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compound interest, like the, the basic building block concepts actually,

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you know, stumbled one of the first touch points with Bitcoin, um, other

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than like an ICO bubble that someone, kind of in my family went through.

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was actually Preston's show, which was funny enough, but

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didn't like go full orange pilled.

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you know, I, I was familiar with some of the, the Bitcoin maximalists

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on Twitter, but it wasn't like fully down the rabbit hole.

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And then, uh, you know, I, I also was very, very much familiar with like

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the plan B, like stock to flow model.

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And again, not that it was gospel for me, but more as a math guy,

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it was like, I looked at a linear regression on a log scale and was like.

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Whoa, you know, this is like, what, what is this, what's going on here?

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Difficulty adjustment, having all those concepts and really

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understanding those at a deeper level.

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and then COVID happened.

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Um, and I'm in the midst of, you know, Ray Dalio's debt cycle framework,

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short term debt cycle, long term debt cycle, these kind of, these long

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macro, uh, cycles, the rise and fall of empires, the fourth turning concepts.

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And you know, there's just this system, this network, this protocol, that's

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seemingly, you know, living and breathing dynamic, never dies, can't kill it.

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And it just clicked.

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Um, so I, I left school, went all in on Bitcoin, not as, not because

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I had a job in the space, I didn't.

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and, and I tell people it's not like it, when, when you get that Bitcoin moment,

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it's you, like, you really shouldn't want, or like, not that it's a bad

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thing, the Bitcoin industry is fantastic.

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But it's not like you need to go like be a Bitcoin marketer, be a Bitcoin,

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like work at a Bitcoin company.

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It's like, no, whatever your expertise is, if you have one, if not, that's okay.

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We're all learning and building, but do that thing on a Bitcoin

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standard if you get it.

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But for me, I was, I didn't have any skills.

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I was figuring stuff out, work manual labor for a year, just to stack stats.

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Um, and then through Twitter, just stumbled my way into

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Bitcoin magazine as a.

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You know, just kind of on the back end, um, started writing a bit, did well.

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Twitter, some shows, and all of a sudden kind of stumbled my way into, a cool

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role in the space of just, you know, looking at data and analytics, kind of the

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convergence of Bitcoin and macro finance.

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And it's cool because, you know, someone like myself, pretty young,

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don't like, doesn't have, you know, the traditional credentials of,

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uh, you know, the Wall Street path.

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I had no MBA.

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I don't even have a bachelor's degree.

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but I think it's more about the merit, the merit of your ideas, right?

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And so Bitcoin has obviously done very well.

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It's gone, you know, it's had its ups and downs, but for me, it's less

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about where Bitcoin trades today, tomorrow, next week, next year.

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More about this overarching thesis that I have and that many of us have and share,

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um, that there's a huge problem in the world, the money's broken, and there's

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really, you know, there's, you can have a solution or an idea, but Bitcoin is,

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is basically, you know, in my opinion, in my view, the most pure form of like

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an engineering solution to this problem.

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So that's kind of what I've gone all in on, um, from a career

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standpoint, from a social standpoint, from a reputational standpoint,

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and from a financial standpoint.

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I'm all in on that idea, and you know, that brings us here, I

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guess, is the short version of it.

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Yeah.

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Cool.

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this begs the question, uh, the HH how much of a deep dive have

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you done into Austrian economics and Pology and that stuff?

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So I will say I'm familiar with all the concepts.

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I'm familiar with, with, you know, the idea of human action and value being

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subjective and not, uh, intrinsic.

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but I haven't read the texts, uh, or at least some parts of them, but I haven't,

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you know, gone down a full, uh, you know, Mises textbook or down, down that

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rabbit hole of sorts, but I'm familiar.

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Just from like, you know, the, the schools of thought of like.

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The Saifuddin's, Pierre Richard's, Wittstein's, you know, Nakamoto

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Institute, that whole, that whole, uh, you know, subset of, of Bitcoiners.

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I'm, I'm very much familiar with all of that.

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but yeah, could probably touch up on some of the, on some of the

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original texts though, admittedly.

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the thing I was getting at here is that, They all lay out a pretty compelling

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case, both Mises Rothbard and Hoppe after him, uh, about how macroeconomics is,

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uh, not really, not, not really a solid science, like all of this, uh, economic

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market analysis things are really just trying to apply mathematics to something

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that Cannot really be quantified.

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So it's like, Saylor says, like, there might be a moment where all your models

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are destroyed because some actor does some seemingly irrational things.

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So, like, how, how much can you know about markets and like, uh, what is, what

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is market analysis and what role does it play in, in, uh, in this environment?

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Yeah.

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So I actually have a book here it's, it's actually probably the

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opposite of what you'd think of in terms of Austrian economics.

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And I think he's a pretty terrible person, but it's, I really love the concept here.

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And it's the alchemy of finance by George Soros and it talks about like the theory

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of reflexivity, and it's essentially like you, you know, the traditional thought

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model of like, okay, input, output.

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Um, is flawed or of like, or like, Oh, like of a efficient market is, is flawed

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when the, the, I, the, when something happening actually changes the likelihood

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of that event happening in the first place, or like, for instance, like, let

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me give you a good example, someone, and this maybe isn't even the perfect example

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of it, but Bitcoin Bitcoin is, as, as this idea, as this monetary asset is, is, you

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know, just this, this tiny little thing.

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It's a speculative little thing in the corner of the

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internet worth a million bucks.

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And once Bitcoin becomes 10 million or a hundred million dollars, the

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liquidity of Bitcoin improves, the adoption improves, and the idea may be

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in everybody's mind of Bitcoin actually becoming a money that could be used

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for global settlement, global trade.

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It becomes more likely and the technology becomes more, uh, becomes, becomes more

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efficient, becomes more widely adopted, the liquidity improves, et cetera.

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So the reflexivity of Bitcoin's likelihood of actually proliferating and becoming

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the global money increases, right?

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And so that's, that's almost a reflexive idea, but that can be applied

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to anything that can be applied to.

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Equity markets that can be applied to currencies that can be applied to, you

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know, what, whatever it may be is, uh, and I'm not explaining it, uh, in, in

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the right way, but I think oftentimes like that's very much fascinating.

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But macroeconomics as an idea is often actually just trying to

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imply essentially human action or some form of central planning.

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And I totally recognize that.

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That's the flawed system we live in.

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A lot of this stuff, this.

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This, this cycle sort of stuff in the, in the macro world is essentially trying

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to predict, you know, when the central planners or when the, uh, you know,

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government central banks are going to act.

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Right.

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And it's like this game of chicken of like, okay, when, you know, when is

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the tightening or the easing or the, you know, intervention coming and, you

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know, for what it, for what it's worth.

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And maybe this is, you know, maybe one of the core problems of society that

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Bitcoin ultimately fixes or roots out of, is that, is that there are people

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that have, you know, worth billions of, you know, hundreds of millions,

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you know, untold amounts of money based on just playing these games, right?

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I've just numbers on a screen, right?

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Like I, I can just know these cycles.

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I can borrow a bunch of money.

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I can, or not even know, but like interpret influence these cycles.

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Borrow a bunch of money, financial engineer my way into immense

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amount of wealth without actually, like, producing anything, right?

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you know, so there's, there's many examples of that.

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So macroeconomics, like, it totally is a pseudoscience.

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There's no, there's no, there's no, like, it's not like there's a

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Pythagorean theorem of like a squared plus b squared equals c squared.

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Like, there's not actually this one equation or rule, right?

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It's just kind of the evolving.

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You know, meshy sort of framework of ideas that kind of can be

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interpreted however you wish.

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Um, but there, there are true principles, right?

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There are, there are things that are unavoidable.

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Um, you know, gravity will always apply.

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Um, so I think, you know, there is, there is some grounding in reality, but less so

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than I think many people, including maybe myself, as I sometimes present it, would

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like to, like, let you believe, right?

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Everybody's trying to figure this fucking game out.

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Excuse my French.

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Ha ha ha.

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Excuse my French on it.

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I, I don't mean to,

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French is beautiful.

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uh, but, but like, yeah, you know, it's a total.

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It's a total guess.

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It's total guesswork.

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No one actually has the answers.

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And same, you know, same in, in, you know, Bitcoin or whatever, right?

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It's like, if, oh, it's like, oh, you know, 58k is programmed, you know?

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It's like, well, no, it's not actually.

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Plan B's model is a model.

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Uh, it's not like, it was never gospel.

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Uh, there's nothing that just because the halving happens doesn't mean

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number goes, like these things, like.

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Are all of us, you know, humans like on a spinning rock trying to figure something

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out and just guessing with patchwork?

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It's nothing is actually, you know, you can't actually like program human action,

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like that, but you know, directionally, obviously I agree with a lot of the stuff.

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Yeah, uh, this all reminds me of a recent article by Armand de Parman

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that I read about how there are three types of Bitcoin accumulators.

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And he categorized them into three subcategories.

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The first is miners, the second is traders, and the third is hodlers.

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And the, uh, the miners can, of course, also be hodlers if they are profitable

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enough to keep some of their Bitcoin.

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Of course, they have bills to pay.

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Uh, the traders just want to do this, uh, analysis thing and, uh, buy and sell

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and try, try to buy low and sell high.

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While the hodlers are, uh, those of us that, that think that they,

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uh, you don't need how to To learn how to trade Bitcoin, you need to

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learn how to not trade Bitcoin.

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That's a better strategy.

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Like over time.

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If you look at your average trader and your average ler, the, the LER

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has outperformed the trader by orders of magnitude over the last 10 years.

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Like it, it's no question about it, one of the best moves you could have done

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in the last 10 years or 12 years was.

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To just sit on your ass and hodl your bitcoin securely for as long as it could.

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That outperformed almost any type of trading that anyone

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any price, right?

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At

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Yeah, at any price, and this, I believe this will always be true, at least until

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hyperbitcoinization, this thing, uh, this.

229
00:12:30,430 --> 00:12:31,290
Mechanism.

230
00:12:31,610 --> 00:12:36,500
So, so I think that, like, so the HODLers are obviously growing in numbers because

231
00:12:36,500 --> 00:12:41,660
more and more people figure out that this is a less time consuming and less risky

232
00:12:41,660 --> 00:12:45,900
way to get wealthy over time by just not trading the thing but HODLing it.

233
00:12:46,381 --> 00:12:52,697
So the amount of traders in, uh, relation to the amount of HODLers is going down.

234
00:12:53,342 --> 00:12:57,462
And also, like, people think that we can't see this kind of

235
00:12:57,462 --> 00:13:00,346
exponential growth, next 12 years.

236
00:13:00,346 --> 00:13:06,394
We've already seen it here the first 12 years, or 14 years, like, uh, the,

237
00:13:06,394 --> 00:13:12,864
um, uh, Bitcoin going from zero to 40, 000 or something at the time,

238
00:13:12,904 --> 00:13:14,744
uh, at the time of recording here.

239
00:13:15,269 --> 00:13:21,099
but I believe that The people are vastly underestimating what can happen in

240
00:13:21,659 --> 00:13:26,709
the next 12 years, because 93 percent of the bitcoins are already mined.

241
00:13:27,199 --> 00:13:31,309
So we'll mine about 6 percent of the total supply in the next 12 years,

242
00:13:32,059 --> 00:13:37,719
which in comparison to the first 93 percent is just Minuscule, right?

243
00:13:37,749 --> 00:13:43,129
And then the final half percent will be mined over the next hundred years.

244
00:13:44,109 --> 00:13:45,869
So the SAT squeeze is real.

245
00:13:46,179 --> 00:13:50,749
And people seem to underestimate this thing so much because, I

246
00:13:50,749 --> 00:13:54,039
mean, the human brain is just not wired to think in exponentials.

247
00:13:54,729 --> 00:13:59,011
And this is like, uh, an inverted exponential, if you will.

248
00:13:59,960 --> 00:14:01,400
what are your thoughts around that?

249
00:14:01,580 --> 00:14:04,530
Like, are the, is this how it works?

250
00:14:04,560 --> 00:14:10,200
Like, is all we need a higher percentage of hodlers versus traders?

251
00:14:10,845 --> 00:14:14,685
Yeah, I mean, I think trade, like, so called traders are just a natural

252
00:14:14,685 --> 00:14:16,775
consequence of Bitcoin's monetization.

253
00:14:16,905 --> 00:14:22,225
Um, you know, they, it's, I mean, a lot of the trading is just a wash.

254
00:14:22,467 --> 00:14:28,177
you know, like, it's, like, it's for liquidity's sake, you know, like.

255
00:14:29,022 --> 00:14:34,652
I guess it's, it's a good thing on, you know, if you want to move a hundred

256
00:14:34,652 --> 00:14:37,662
million in and out of the Bitcoin market in a day, you can, but for the

257
00:14:37,662 --> 00:14:41,972
average person, yeah, like it would be a different, the equation would be

258
00:14:42,212 --> 00:14:46,792
different, although still it would be negative some given the trading fees.

259
00:14:47,202 --> 00:14:50,562
Like, like on average, not for an individual, there's brilliant

260
00:14:50,592 --> 00:14:52,172
traders and risk managers.

261
00:14:52,172 --> 00:14:55,322
And obviously that's not, you know, everybody can't be a hedge

262
00:14:55,322 --> 00:14:56,582
fund manager as their day job.

263
00:14:56,612 --> 00:14:59,862
And even there's many hedge fund managers that will lose money, obviously.

264
00:15:00,332 --> 00:15:04,912
Um, but if you just account for one trading fees, so let's just say this

265
00:15:04,912 --> 00:15:08,082
is like an oversimplification, but let's just say it's 1 percent on each

266
00:15:08,082 --> 00:15:11,432
side of the buy and sell, or like even 10 basis points, you know, 0.

267
00:15:11,432 --> 00:15:11,892
1%.

268
00:15:12,352 --> 00:15:13,672
You know, that's net negative.

269
00:15:13,732 --> 00:15:17,522
That's a, that's a, you know, a negative some game on average, right?

270
00:15:17,522 --> 00:15:18,902
Because the exchange is attracting some.

271
00:15:19,192 --> 00:15:21,172
And then you account for uncle Sam, right?

272
00:15:21,292 --> 00:15:24,942
Who doesn't, you know, if you're, if you're selling for a loss, you can

273
00:15:24,942 --> 00:15:27,982
obviously, you know, maybe account for some of that, um, and carry over

274
00:15:27,982 --> 00:15:31,252
those losses, but you account for the gains and depending on where you

275
00:15:31,252 --> 00:15:35,522
live, they take 20, 30, 40, 50%, um, and then, you know, you make a bunch

276
00:15:35,522 --> 00:15:39,832
of money in dollar terms, but in, you know, Bitcoin terms, you have to be.

277
00:15:40,402 --> 00:15:45,142
Masterfully skilled, manage your tax, uh, your tax burden, your cost basis.

278
00:15:45,172 --> 00:15:48,922
Maybe you use some derivative hedging instrument to not affect your cap,

279
00:15:48,962 --> 00:15:52,192
your cost basis and extend, and then, you know, instead just like,

280
00:15:52,472 --> 00:15:53,502
you know, hedge off some risks.

281
00:15:53,502 --> 00:15:56,082
But then again, it's like, you're getting into all these esoteric games.

282
00:15:56,092 --> 00:15:57,992
You may be, it works, maybe it doesn't.

283
00:15:58,662 --> 00:16:02,092
So hodling is, is the best, you know, for, for most people.

284
00:16:02,142 --> 00:16:05,052
If you think about what the next 10 years looks like in terms of performance.

285
00:16:06,187 --> 00:16:08,657
Well, it's, you know, it's pretty much impossible to go from, you know,

286
00:16:08,657 --> 00:16:14,057
to see the, the relative performance that you saw from a buck to 40, 000,

287
00:16:14,057 --> 00:16:16,397
um, or even a hundred to 40, 000.

288
00:16:16,477 --> 00:16:21,507
But, um, you know, the, you know, could we see another decade of 30, 40 percent

289
00:16:21,507 --> 00:16:26,177
compound annual growth or, you know, even less like 20 percent and that Bitcoin

290
00:16:26,177 --> 00:16:27,667
is still the best performing asset.

291
00:16:28,087 --> 00:16:29,787
Um, yeah, of course you could.

292
00:16:29,937 --> 00:16:31,567
Um, and I think that the more.

293
00:16:31,992 --> 00:16:36,702
You, the more you grow the, you know, as Bitcoin hypothetically turns from

294
00:16:36,702 --> 00:16:41,492
a 1 trillion or $800 billion asset today to 1,000,000,000,005 trillion,

295
00:16:41,492 --> 00:16:44,462
10 trillion, well, all of a sudden the leaps and bounds from 10 to a

296
00:16:44,462 --> 00:16:48,822
hundred trillion are less about the BTC numerator and more about the USD

297
00:16:48,822 --> 00:16:51,852
denominator as we accelerate this process.

298
00:16:52,407 --> 00:16:55,947
Um, and that's, that's not a calculation people are really accounting for.

299
00:16:56,087 --> 00:16:58,427
Um, I mean, the first part of Bitcoin's monetization was

300
00:16:58,427 --> 00:16:59,577
very much so just Bitcoin.

301
00:17:00,467 --> 00:17:01,547
Inflation's 2%.

302
00:17:01,597 --> 00:17:03,267
Yes, M2 is going up more than that.

303
00:17:03,267 --> 00:17:05,017
Yes, asset prices are going up more than that.

304
00:17:05,097 --> 00:17:08,167
Then COVID 10 happens and the, you know, M2 explode, they

305
00:17:08,167 --> 00:17:11,947
helicopter money on corporations and individuals, QE, infinity.

306
00:17:12,677 --> 00:17:16,027
And you know, Bitcoin goes up a bunch, crashes, but right.

307
00:17:16,027 --> 00:17:19,507
It's like, wait a sec, like, yeah, Bitcoin went up a ton.

308
00:17:19,517 --> 00:17:20,857
It was the best performing asset.

309
00:17:21,697 --> 00:17:26,037
You know, 10x or 20x from the low of the cycle, but still

310
00:17:26,037 --> 00:17:27,217
they printed a bunch of money.

311
00:17:27,247 --> 00:17:29,197
And so whatever the next cycle happens, who knows?

312
00:17:29,737 --> 00:17:30,737
Is it diminishing?

313
00:17:30,827 --> 00:17:31,637
Is it not?

314
00:17:31,767 --> 00:17:32,767
Is it a super cycle?

315
00:17:32,767 --> 00:17:33,327
Is it not?

316
00:17:33,327 --> 00:17:35,297
Like, again, no one knows.

317
00:17:35,297 --> 00:17:36,477
Everybody's just guessing.

318
00:17:36,837 --> 00:17:41,037
But would I, would I be surprised about another 50, 60, 70 percent drawdown?

319
00:17:41,267 --> 00:17:42,307
Absolutely not.

320
00:17:42,667 --> 00:17:45,347
Humans are, you know, they're very much cyclical.

321
00:17:45,357 --> 00:17:48,157
Human psyche and behavior is very much cyclical.

322
00:17:48,552 --> 00:17:51,312
Which is why we get business cycles and economic cycles and asset

323
00:17:51,472 --> 00:17:52,842
booms and busts and drawdowns.

324
00:17:53,605 --> 00:17:57,985
and so, yeah, like Bitcoin probably doesn't go up as much as it did

325
00:17:57,985 --> 00:18:00,865
in the previous cycles, but the amount of actual capital that's

326
00:18:00,875 --> 00:18:04,195
flowing in is obviously orders of magnitude larger than it's ever been.

327
00:18:04,525 --> 00:18:05,995
And there's not that many coins going around.

328
00:18:06,517 --> 00:18:09,467
I mean, you're always going to see, right, that the idea of the hodler

329
00:18:09,487 --> 00:18:10,837
is a strong one and it's true.

330
00:18:10,847 --> 00:18:12,117
We can see it in the data.

331
00:18:12,277 --> 00:18:15,617
You can, like, I can feel it when I talk to you, you guys on a podcast

332
00:18:15,827 --> 00:18:18,207
or Bitcoiners on Twitter, Nostr.

333
00:18:18,557 --> 00:18:19,917
But we can also see it in the data.

334
00:18:20,617 --> 00:18:24,097
Yeah, like 70 percent of Bitcoin hasn't moved in a year, 50 percent

335
00:18:24,097 --> 00:18:27,147
of Bitcoin hasn't moved in two, there's more long term holders than

336
00:18:27,147 --> 00:18:30,067
ever, you know, like 90 percent of coins haven't moved in three months.

337
00:18:30,577 --> 00:18:32,377
But these are all like unprecedented things.

338
00:18:33,047 --> 00:18:36,547
Um, so as capital floods in, naturally, the exchange rate goes

339
00:18:36,567 --> 00:18:40,557
up and naturally, HODLers rate, like you're not selling all your stack.

340
00:18:40,557 --> 00:18:41,377
I'm not going to sell.

341
00:18:41,407 --> 00:18:45,517
I'm, you know, definitely not selling all my stack ever, but if Bitcoin

342
00:18:45,527 --> 00:18:49,047
goes up by an order of magnitude or nevermind an order of magnitude,

343
00:18:49,047 --> 00:18:50,627
it goes up by 5x or 2x or 3x.

344
00:18:51,887 --> 00:18:52,147
Right?

345
00:18:52,147 --> 00:18:57,124
Like maybe do I peel off 1 percent of my stack and, treat myself or

346
00:18:57,124 --> 00:19:01,474
get the thing I've always wanted for a decade or get my mom something

347
00:19:01,484 --> 00:19:03,174
nice or whatever it is, right?

348
00:19:03,444 --> 00:19:05,844
Yeah, maybe, maybe with 1 percent or 5 percent of my stack.

349
00:19:05,844 --> 00:19:06,404
And guess what?

350
00:19:06,404 --> 00:19:12,594
Like we see that on average in the data when Bitcoin's price goes bonkers, the

351
00:19:12,594 --> 00:19:17,464
people that were in the depths of the bear market getting their teeth smashed in, you

352
00:19:17,464 --> 00:19:19,944
know, down 70%, down 80 percent stacking.

353
00:19:20,919 --> 00:19:24,069
That same cohort takes a little bit off, right?

354
00:19:24,109 --> 00:19:27,809
And they peel a little bit off at the top and they slowly distribute a little bit.

355
00:19:28,399 --> 00:19:31,129
And that's in tandem with this flood of capital coming in and

356
00:19:31,129 --> 00:19:32,539
Bitcoin's price goes parabolic.

357
00:19:33,149 --> 00:19:36,119
And eventually the marginal buyer gets a little exhausted and there's so

358
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,029
much leverage built up in the system.

359
00:19:38,619 --> 00:19:41,879
And it kind of bursts and we see, you know, that 30, 40, 50 percent

360
00:19:41,889 --> 00:19:44,709
water, waterfall, watershed moment.

361
00:19:44,829 --> 00:19:48,219
And, you know, Bitcoin's dead again and we repeat it all over again.

362
00:19:48,219 --> 00:19:48,439
Right.

363
00:19:48,439 --> 00:19:52,229
And that's when the new group of HODLers that are saying, whoa, you know, that came

364
00:19:52,229 --> 00:19:57,969
in in 2024, 2025, like 2023, you go, whoa, this Bitcoin thing's really important.

365
00:19:58,669 --> 00:20:01,979
And it goes up a bunch on them and they're like, wait, it's more

366
00:20:01,979 --> 00:20:03,039
important than I even thought.

367
00:20:03,549 --> 00:20:06,529
And all of a sudden it blows up in their face and they spend two years, you know,

368
00:20:06,549 --> 00:20:10,319
two, three years accumulating, like, and I think we very much see this cycle.

369
00:20:10,329 --> 00:20:14,729
We've seen the cycle repeat over and over again, and every single time Bitcoin is.

370
00:20:15,304 --> 00:20:20,234
More entrenched, it's more liquid, it's bigger of an idea and, uh, the, the

371
00:20:20,234 --> 00:20:25,724
hodler base around the world is more of a powerful, not political party, if

372
00:20:25,724 --> 00:20:31,640
you will, but more of a powerful kind of decentralized global, unit of like

373
00:20:31,700 --> 00:20:33,380
autonomous sovereign individuals, right?

374
00:20:33,380 --> 00:20:35,600
They're saying like, Hey, like treat me right.

375
00:20:36,130 --> 00:20:39,100
Uh, if you don't treat me right, I'm going to take my capital elsewhere.

376
00:20:39,430 --> 00:20:42,250
I'm going to, I'm going to move elsewhere.

377
00:20:42,260 --> 00:20:43,400
I'm going to relocate.

378
00:20:43,845 --> 00:20:48,145
And that is, you know, very powerful, uh, you know, that is, that is the

379
00:20:48,145 --> 00:20:52,264
second and third order effects of that, kind of in tandem with this like

380
00:20:52,264 --> 00:20:56,184
sovereign individual thesis is very powerful on a long timeframe, right?

381
00:20:56,184 --> 00:21:00,414
Especially as, as, you know, Bitcoin continues to appreciate just because of

382
00:21:00,414 --> 00:21:02,274
supply, like it's very simple, right?

383
00:21:02,274 --> 00:21:08,204
Like, like, you know, we can over explain it as much as possible to whoever.

384
00:21:08,729 --> 00:21:11,499
But all it takes is a simple supply demand chart, you know,

385
00:21:11,499 --> 00:21:15,309
that you saw in like freshman year economics in high school, right?

386
00:21:15,319 --> 00:21:18,789
It's like very, very much simple why this, this story will continue,

387
00:21:19,289 --> 00:21:22,419
why, you know, why there's going to be no secular top for Bitcoin.

388
00:21:22,459 --> 00:21:23,299
There's not going to be.

389
00:21:23,699 --> 00:21:27,289
This one final peak and then it all, you know, the story was great,

390
00:21:27,289 --> 00:21:28,469
but it all comes crumbling down.

391
00:21:28,489 --> 00:21:33,139
It's like, what, what causes this story that's been proliferating this,

392
00:21:33,419 --> 00:21:37,319
this idea, this network that's been proliferating since 2009 to stop?

393
00:21:37,959 --> 00:21:39,819
That's the real question everyone should be asking.

394
00:21:39,929 --> 00:21:45,729
Um, because yeah, there could be lapses in momentum and drawdowns and hiccups

395
00:21:45,729 --> 00:21:49,519
and speed bumps, but what's, what causes this idea to stop and actually reverse?

396
00:21:50,374 --> 00:21:51,294
And there is no answer.

397
00:21:51,414 --> 00:21:52,994
Uh, and there is no good answer to that.

398
00:21:53,004 --> 00:21:53,024
Is

399
00:21:53,460 --> 00:21:59,605
No, uh, but on that note, and this, uh, all, uh, History rhyming, but not

400
00:21:59,605 --> 00:22:04,995
repeating, sort of, kind of, we go in cycles, and, uh, you have a bull market

401
00:22:05,045 --> 00:22:09,055
every now and then, every four years or something, it sort of coincides with

402
00:22:09,665 --> 00:22:14,756
the halving somehow, and all of that stuff, like, there eventually comes a

403
00:22:14,756 --> 00:22:18,096
point where the last bull market happens.

404
00:22:18,096 --> 00:22:22,566
And I don't mean that in the sense of Bitcoin crashes and goes

405
00:22:22,566 --> 00:22:24,606
away, but the other thing happens.

406
00:22:24,676 --> 00:22:31,606
Like, people may learn slowly, and we may have like tens of

407
00:22:32,066 --> 00:22:34,676
these bull bear cycles to it.

408
00:22:35,036 --> 00:22:39,726
to play out before this actually happens, but eventually if this thing works

409
00:22:39,766 --> 00:22:45,646
and if people get it, there will come a point where we're in the last bull

410
00:22:45,646 --> 00:22:48,886
market that just goes absolutely bonkers.

411
00:22:48,896 --> 00:22:51,366
It's not numbers, number go up anymore.

412
00:22:51,366 --> 00:22:53,316
It's number go absolutely crazy.

413
00:22:53,666 --> 00:22:58,536
And in this bull market, all the wealth of the world flows into

414
00:22:58,536 --> 00:23:00,096
Bitcoin and there's no stopping it.

415
00:23:00,136 --> 00:23:02,026
Like it.

416
00:23:02,296 --> 00:23:07,316
Is that the way you see things too, that that point is inevitable at some point as

417
00:23:07,356 --> 00:23:09,956
long as this thing just keeps on working?

418
00:23:10,576 --> 00:23:15,586
yeah, I see it like that, but I think there's going to be more of a

419
00:23:15,786 --> 00:23:18,406
back and forth fight, if you will.

420
00:23:18,636 --> 00:23:22,806
Uh, not in the sense of a fight as, uh, you know, Elizabeth Warren

421
00:23:22,916 --> 00:23:26,476
introduces some BS regulation or, you know, bill into Congress.

422
00:23:26,926 --> 00:23:30,676
But more so if you think about, you know, like crappy currencies

423
00:23:30,816 --> 00:23:33,546
have existed against the dollar and gold for a long time.

424
00:23:34,271 --> 00:23:38,301
And they, and they, you know, like the Argentinian peso continues to

425
00:23:38,311 --> 00:23:42,601
devalue every single year against the dollar and it still exists, right?

426
00:23:42,631 --> 00:23:46,751
And it exists because of political mandate and fiat, of course, you know, and the,

427
00:23:46,831 --> 00:23:50,331
the arms of the state and enforcing it, your taxes to be paid in it, et cetera.

428
00:23:50,331 --> 00:23:53,791
But, right, like there's long dated fiat liabilities 30 years out.

429
00:23:54,106 --> 00:23:54,416
Right.

430
00:23:54,496 --> 00:23:57,916
So, you know, even longer than that, if you're thinking of pensions,

431
00:23:57,916 --> 00:23:59,676
entitlements, you know, yada, yada.

432
00:23:59,686 --> 00:24:05,536
So, I think it's very likely, um, and, you know, hopefully not, maybe not, um,

433
00:24:05,586 --> 00:24:09,136
if we're thinking about, you know, how, how this thing can go exponential and how

434
00:24:09,176 --> 00:24:14,956
technology's, you know, uh, adopted and, you know, maybe I'm the guy that's saying,

435
00:24:14,966 --> 00:24:21,166
Hey, just maybe like, You know, the horse and buggy or the, uh, like, or some, some

436
00:24:21,166 --> 00:24:24,586
other sort of like, you know, tech analogy like that is still around and relevant,

437
00:24:24,586 --> 00:24:26,826
you know, 10, 15 years out, 20 years out.

438
00:24:27,186 --> 00:24:31,616
But I think there's, there's a world where Bitcoin is the dominant unit of

439
00:24:31,946 --> 00:24:34,086
the dominant global settlement rail.

440
00:24:34,476 --> 00:24:36,246
It's the dominant store of value.

441
00:24:36,286 --> 00:24:38,046
It's 10 times larger than gold.

442
00:24:38,766 --> 00:24:45,322
And the dollar can still exist as a form of, you know, a form of currency, if

443
00:24:45,322 --> 00:24:49,932
you will, as a form of basically just the last arm of government and, and

444
00:24:50,302 --> 00:24:56,032
it imposes actually a fiscal austerity and a fiscal form of, uh, maybe not

445
00:24:56,172 --> 00:25:03,112
austerity, but a form of, uh, you know, sensibility, um, austerity, um, you

446
00:25:03,112 --> 00:25:07,707
know, just more, more so just, Kind of, it pulls everyone back a little bit and

447
00:25:07,707 --> 00:25:09,417
says, okay, wait, we actually have to be.

448
00:25:09,707 --> 00:25:12,147
Cognizant of, of this whole path.

449
00:25:12,567 --> 00:25:16,857
And so in the same way that you see, like in emerging markets, they'll jack

450
00:25:16,867 --> 00:25:19,757
up interest rates of time to defend their currency against speculators.

451
00:25:20,417 --> 00:25:23,997
Well, you know, people don't like to think of that, but like Michael Saylor

452
00:25:23,997 --> 00:25:25,307
is the most pure example of this.

453
00:25:26,037 --> 00:25:29,297
When you think of like, okay, he's going to borrow a billion dollars of, you

454
00:25:29,297 --> 00:25:33,147
know, he's borrowing a billion dollars of convertible notes at zero, right?

455
00:25:33,147 --> 00:25:36,877
And he's giving people an option to sell equity, uh, or just, you know, borrowing

456
00:25:36,877 --> 00:25:38,487
at zero and paying seven years later.

457
00:25:38,497 --> 00:25:41,517
And then he borrows 600 million in the junk debt market at 6%.

458
00:25:42,027 --> 00:25:44,707
Well, you know, at a micro scale, right?

459
00:25:44,707 --> 00:25:48,242
Like, Let's just say, and I don't, but let's just say I have, I have

460
00:25:48,242 --> 00:25:49,682
a hundred thousand of student debt.

461
00:25:49,852 --> 00:25:50,122
I don't.

462
00:25:50,142 --> 00:25:54,862
I took one year of school, had good grades, have no debt, but let's just

463
00:25:54,862 --> 00:25:57,742
say I was the typical Zoomer, right?

464
00:25:57,742 --> 00:26:02,022
And I had a hundred thousand or whatever of unsecured student debt that I can't

465
00:26:02,022 --> 00:26:06,152
default upon at 4 percent interest or 5 percent interest or whatever it

466
00:26:06,152 --> 00:26:07,492
was because it was a few years back.

467
00:26:08,142 --> 00:26:11,132
Well, you know, I'm a, I'm someone that thinks for the long term.

468
00:26:11,162 --> 00:26:15,317
I, instead of paying down, you know, my student debt, I make The decision

469
00:26:15,317 --> 00:26:18,807
that, you know, that my 60 year old financial advisor may say is risky.

470
00:26:19,502 --> 00:26:23,542
But I, instead of paying that all down in principle, pay the interest,

471
00:26:23,542 --> 00:26:24,502
pay a small amount of principle.

472
00:26:24,502 --> 00:26:26,532
But I'm stacking Bitcoin, right?

473
00:26:26,532 --> 00:26:29,202
I'm stacking Bitcoin, putting Bitcoin away, stacking for cool storage.

474
00:26:29,842 --> 00:26:32,242
Well, am I borrowing money to buy Bitcoin?

475
00:26:32,332 --> 00:26:32,872
No.

476
00:26:33,292 --> 00:26:38,992
But instead of borrowing that, instead of paying that debt off, I'm aside, I'm, I'm

477
00:26:38,992 --> 00:26:43,296
deciding in instead of, eliminating the liability on that, on my side of the, on

478
00:26:43,296 --> 00:26:44,646
the liability side of my balance sheet.

479
00:26:44,931 --> 00:26:47,441
I'm acquiring a Bitcoin denominated asset on the asset side.

480
00:26:48,271 --> 00:26:50,861
So indirectly, right, like dollars on my personal balance

481
00:26:50,861 --> 00:26:52,001
sheet are fungible, right?

482
00:26:52,011 --> 00:26:56,181
I understand, right, like if you have a mortgage per se and you don't pay

483
00:26:56,181 --> 00:26:59,281
that fully off and you buy some Bitcoin while still having that mortgage, you're

484
00:26:59,281 --> 00:27:00,651
not borrowing money to buy Bitcoin.

485
00:27:00,821 --> 00:27:04,091
But instead of extinguishing that liability or acquiring the Bitcoin

486
00:27:04,091 --> 00:27:08,721
denominated asset, In a way, that's, if you think of, you know, your personal

487
00:27:08,721 --> 00:27:12,401
balance sheet as fungible, you're borrowing money to buy Bitcoin, right?

488
00:27:12,501 --> 00:27:15,281
Instead of, it's, you're, you're deferring, you're paying interest

489
00:27:15,281 --> 00:27:17,541
on that, and you're acquiring a Bitcoin denominated asset.

490
00:27:17,581 --> 00:27:19,891
So all of us, any of us that have Bitcoin and debt.

491
00:27:20,541 --> 00:27:23,561
are acquiring the Bitcoin asset and ignoring the dollar liability.

492
00:27:24,141 --> 00:27:29,771
And that at a societal scale, um, as this thing continues to, as this

493
00:27:29,961 --> 00:27:34,301
economic system continues to, you know, require perpetual credit expansion,

494
00:27:35,021 --> 00:27:38,791
as these historic debt levels continue to require financial repression,

495
00:27:38,881 --> 00:27:41,431
you know, inflation above interest rates, because that's the reality.

496
00:27:41,431 --> 00:27:44,481
I mean, the last, the last year aside, they're going through this Titan cycle.

497
00:27:44,831 --> 00:27:47,281
Everybody's thinking all is well, but it's, it's unmanageable.

498
00:27:47,401 --> 00:27:48,681
So they need more inflation.

499
00:27:48,681 --> 00:27:50,261
They need more units in the system.

500
00:27:50,696 --> 00:27:51,536
It's just a fact.

501
00:27:51,536 --> 00:27:52,156
It's just a math.

502
00:27:52,196 --> 00:27:53,216
It's a math equation.

503
00:27:53,226 --> 00:27:54,476
It's not even a macro equation.

504
00:27:54,486 --> 00:27:58,416
It's a math equation that you have to inflate away the currency.

505
00:27:58,916 --> 00:28:03,546
And so from, from, you know, this, if you're thinking about how the dollar,

506
00:28:03,796 --> 00:28:06,776
and I would say the dollar is the strongest, obviously, of all the other

507
00:28:06,776 --> 00:28:11,296
currencies, the euro, the yen, the yuan, the ruble, whatever currency you want.

508
00:28:12,406 --> 00:28:15,916
But they can very much exist, but they'll be.

509
00:28:16,601 --> 00:28:20,041
You know, if not like, not to say worthless, but near worthless on a

510
00:28:20,241 --> 00:28:21,801
year over year basis forever, right?

511
00:28:22,201 --> 00:28:25,951
Uh, and there will be volatility, of course, as these, you know, these

512
00:28:25,961 --> 00:28:31,021
dying systems kind of fight back in the form of interest rate, like, rate,

513
00:28:31,031 --> 00:28:34,341
and everybody knows that the rate, rate, uh, hikes aren't sustainable.

514
00:28:34,821 --> 00:28:37,651
Like, every tightening cycle, we, we go through this, like, they

515
00:28:37,651 --> 00:28:41,171
raise, they raise rates, it's like, okay, all is good, and then, boom,

516
00:28:41,201 --> 00:28:42,851
something, something breaks, right?

517
00:28:43,281 --> 00:28:48,391
Like, tech bubble, 80 percent drawdown, 50 percent drawdown in equity indices.

518
00:28:48,431 --> 00:28:49,631
Not even like, not even big tech.

519
00:28:49,871 --> 00:28:52,931
50 percent drawdown when they raised rates in the tech bubble.

520
00:28:52,931 --> 00:28:55,311
They're like, okay, shoot, how do we fix this?

521
00:28:55,681 --> 00:28:59,531
They literally said, the Fed Greenspan was like, we should blow a housing bubble.

522
00:28:59,841 --> 00:29:00,781
This is in the Fed minutes.

523
00:29:00,781 --> 00:29:03,021
This is what they were saying in like 2002, 2003.

524
00:29:04,001 --> 00:29:07,131
Housing market comes, they raise, they raise rates because inflation

525
00:29:07,131 --> 00:29:08,841
starts to roar, oil's going bonkers.

526
00:29:09,781 --> 00:29:12,711
Boom, leverage, collapse, you know, great financial crisis.

527
00:29:12,841 --> 00:29:15,501
Once in a hundred year catastrophe, they cut rates to zero.

528
00:29:15,961 --> 00:29:18,981
They get rates up to two and a half percent in 2018 2019.

529
00:29:20,081 --> 00:29:23,411
For the corporate bond markets like, oh boy, we have a big problem.

530
00:29:24,121 --> 00:29:26,241
2019, they're already cutting rates.

531
00:29:26,611 --> 00:29:27,841
Repo market blows up.

532
00:29:27,871 --> 00:29:29,921
They start expanding the balance sheet before COVID.

533
00:29:30,521 --> 00:29:36,101
BlackRock's like, Hey, next down cycle, we need to go direct from

534
00:29:36,111 --> 00:29:38,381
governments to households with stimulus.

535
00:29:38,431 --> 00:29:42,131
Cause we've done a decade of rates at zero and when rates are at zero again,

536
00:29:42,141 --> 00:29:44,731
we're not going to have, they're not going to have any sort of leverage.

537
00:29:44,731 --> 00:29:45,921
We're not going to have any sort of.

538
00:29:45,991 --> 00:29:49,231
Like oomph for our easing.

539
00:29:49,421 --> 00:29:50,721
So we're going to need to go direct to households.

540
00:29:51,061 --> 00:29:53,601
Six months later, COVID, 10 trillion in the system.

541
00:29:54,031 --> 00:29:58,551
So like this, this reality that yes, there, there, there needs

542
00:29:58,551 --> 00:30:00,031
to be perpetual credit expansion.

543
00:30:00,491 --> 00:30:00,841
Yes.

544
00:30:01,091 --> 00:30:04,811
The dollar is going to continue to devalue against everything you care about.

545
00:30:04,991 --> 00:30:05,361
True.

546
00:30:06,151 --> 00:30:10,461
But there's always going to be, I think, and as Bitcoin becomes more valuable,

547
00:30:10,761 --> 00:30:14,601
it's going to play a bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger role and more directly.

548
00:30:15,056 --> 00:30:20,136
Represent the, the devaluation in fiat and the devaluation of the dollar more

549
00:30:20,166 --> 00:30:21,966
purely, I think, in my view, right?

550
00:30:22,156 --> 00:30:25,126
Instead of just being this uncorrelated thing, that's just booming and busting.

551
00:30:25,346 --> 00:30:29,586
When Bitcoin's a 10 trillion asset, when Bitcoin's a 50 trillion asset,

552
00:30:30,096 --> 00:30:34,766
hypothetically we're in this world, it's going to tick for tick match the

553
00:30:34,766 --> 00:30:38,786
market's expectation and the actual dollar devaluation in the system.

554
00:30:39,421 --> 00:30:40,921
And that's, and that's what you can expect.

555
00:30:40,921 --> 00:30:41,031
Right.

556
00:30:41,031 --> 00:30:43,461
It's going to be this pure gauge of, of calling, calling

557
00:30:43,461 --> 00:30:46,001
the systems bluff, if you will.

558
00:30:46,051 --> 00:30:46,341
Right.

559
00:30:46,351 --> 00:30:48,421
It's like, Oh, you want to, you want to print a trillion dollars

560
00:30:48,421 --> 00:30:49,571
for this BS stimulus plan?

561
00:30:49,581 --> 00:30:49,961
Great.

562
00:30:50,581 --> 00:30:52,441
Bitcoin gaps up 10 percent on the news.

563
00:30:52,781 --> 00:30:53,051
Right.

564
00:30:53,331 --> 00:30:55,671
Like that's, that's the game that's, that's playing.

565
00:30:55,691 --> 00:30:59,481
And I think, you know, the question of like, is dollar

566
00:30:59,481 --> 00:31:00,531
going to collapse tomorrow?

567
00:31:00,541 --> 00:31:00,821
Like, right.

568
00:31:01,701 --> 00:31:04,041
You know, I don't, or not tomorrow, but like in this decade, like,

569
00:31:04,091 --> 00:31:06,531
yeah, in purchasing power terms, of course it will against Bitcoin.

570
00:31:07,011 --> 00:31:13,361
Um, but I, I think the dollar can still exist with Bitcoin, uh, and

571
00:31:13,381 --> 00:31:16,771
the Bitcoin can be worth a hundred trillion and it can still exist.

572
00:31:17,141 --> 00:31:21,861
And like, that's, if that's not something I'm rooting for or not, I think it's just

573
00:31:21,871 --> 00:31:25,251
the reality that like we can all, you know, at some point, yeah, it'll be gone.

574
00:31:25,751 --> 00:31:28,811
Um, but like, what's the path to get there and how long does it take?

575
00:31:29,041 --> 00:31:29,821
That's anybody's guess.

576
00:31:30,509 --> 00:31:32,989
Yeah, that's the, that's the trickiest question, right?

577
00:31:33,829 --> 00:31:38,119
With all of this is the timing of the stuff, but the facts are still there.

578
00:31:38,149 --> 00:31:41,499
Everything drops to their marginal cost of production, and the marginal

579
00:31:41,529 --> 00:31:43,649
cost of production of a dollar is zero.

580
00:31:44,259 --> 00:31:49,279
Like, it's literally, uh, it costs you nothing to print a dollar

581
00:31:49,279 --> 00:31:54,239
if you have a money printer, and that is not the case with Bitcoin.

582
00:31:54,249 --> 00:31:57,769
The marginal cost of a Bitcoin goes higher and higher every year.

583
00:31:58,109 --> 00:31:59,469
So, that's it.

584
00:31:59,752 --> 00:32:03,372
Alright, you might have noticed that we've recently partnered with AmberApp.

585
00:32:03,663 --> 00:32:07,993
After our episode with Izzy, their CEO, and our close friend, we knew we

586
00:32:07,993 --> 00:32:11,398
would have to partner with them in some way, If you haven't seen our episode

587
00:32:11,398 --> 00:32:15,488
with Izzy, definitely go check it out, you'll see why it's such a great fit,

588
00:32:15,738 --> 00:32:19,668
and honestly, they're following the orange glowing light like Izzy always

589
00:32:19,668 --> 00:32:23,758
says, and that's exactly what we try to do here at the Freedom Footprint Show.

590
00:32:24,082 --> 00:32:26,421
The big news about AmberApp is that they're going to be

591
00:32:26,421 --> 00:32:28,231
launching their version 2.

592
00:32:28,448 --> 00:32:31,958
I've seen some of the screenshots and it looks fantastic.

593
00:32:32,253 --> 00:32:36,064
They're going to be including a non custodial on chain wallet, an

594
00:32:36,084 --> 00:32:40,336
anonymous lightning wallet, a fiat wallet, And finally, it's going

595
00:32:40,336 --> 00:32:41,676
to be an exchange, of course.

596
00:32:41,916 --> 00:32:44,818
it's going to be just this super app, They're also going

597
00:32:44,818 --> 00:32:46,168
to be launching globally.

598
00:32:46,188 --> 00:32:47,738
Everyone's going to be able to use it.

599
00:32:47,978 --> 00:32:49,708
we're really excited about all that.

600
00:32:49,838 --> 00:32:52,478
Stay tuned with us and you'll hear all about it.

601
00:32:52,678 --> 00:32:55,028
And for now, check out their website, amber.

602
00:32:55,278 --> 00:32:57,988
app and the episode with Izzy to find out more.

603
00:32:58,295 --> 00:32:59,834
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604
00:33:00,074 --> 00:33:03,524
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605
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606
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607
00:33:10,369 --> 00:33:13,379
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608
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609
00:33:16,749 --> 00:33:19,299
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610
00:33:19,819 --> 00:33:23,299
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611
00:33:23,299 --> 00:33:27,419
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612
00:33:27,959 --> 00:33:31,469
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613
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614
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615
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616
00:33:38,519 --> 00:33:42,989
If we extrapolate into the future for a while here and try to explore

617
00:33:43,399 --> 00:33:49,039
what's the role of macroeconomics in a hyperbitcoinized world, if we just

618
00:33:49,069 --> 00:33:53,319
take that for a fact that everyone on earth uses bitcoin as their main

619
00:33:53,319 --> 00:33:58,589
medium of exchange, is there such a thing as a hedge fund in such a future?

620
00:33:59,029 --> 00:34:01,389
Is there a need for a financial sector at all?

621
00:34:02,254 --> 00:34:04,814
Or what is a company in such a future?

622
00:34:04,814 --> 00:34:08,904
Like, I'm trying to imagine this, if, if, if there's no interventionism

623
00:34:08,904 --> 00:34:15,744
anymore, so you don't have, say, imagine this fictitious scenario where

624
00:34:15,744 --> 00:34:22,334
you have no inflation, no taxes, or little to no taxes, or they're mostly

625
00:34:22,334 --> 00:34:26,804
voluntary, so a company is really just a telegram group, and we're all on a

626
00:34:26,804 --> 00:34:31,604
Bitcoin standard, and we can all trade globally, Is there even a need for

627
00:34:31,604 --> 00:34:34,054
a financial sector in such a world?

628
00:34:35,034 --> 00:34:39,144
You know, the idea of macroeconomics and, you know, this whole, you

629
00:34:39,144 --> 00:34:43,864
know, reading tea leaves financial sector is very much gone or greatly

630
00:34:43,864 --> 00:34:45,634
diminished, uh, when the money is.

631
00:34:46,449 --> 00:34:49,009
It's an apolitical, uh, you know, neutral programmatic

632
00:34:49,019 --> 00:34:51,179
network, um, and I agree there.

633
00:34:51,379 --> 00:34:55,299
Uh, but I, I think that, you know, when you think of the financial

634
00:34:55,309 --> 00:34:59,729
sector, um, it's, you, you eliminate the quintillionaires, you eliminate

635
00:34:59,729 --> 00:35:05,139
the, the idea of those being closest to the money printer kind of, um,

636
00:35:05,209 --> 00:35:07,159
benefiting at the cost of everybody else.

637
00:35:07,949 --> 00:35:08,759
Based on having,

638
00:35:08,814 --> 00:35:09,854
Cantillon effect.

639
00:35:10,959 --> 00:35:11,809
yeah, exactly.

640
00:35:11,809 --> 00:35:12,629
You eliminate that.

641
00:35:12,629 --> 00:35:15,279
But I think the financial sector in the form of, right.

642
00:35:15,279 --> 00:35:18,909
So like the last question you asked, like, is the dollar, and you didn't

643
00:35:18,909 --> 00:35:22,499
say this exactly, but you're like, is the dollar going away entirely?

644
00:35:22,599 --> 00:35:27,119
And I didn't push back, but, you know, maybe offered a bit of, uh,

645
00:35:27,769 --> 00:35:31,019
a different view saying, Hey, maybe it doesn't just go away entirely.

646
00:35:31,019 --> 00:35:33,689
And they, the two exist in parallel for a lot longer than

647
00:35:33,699 --> 00:35:34,919
most of us believe, including.

648
00:35:35,504 --> 00:35:38,844
Myself, you know, a couple of years ago, maybe I wouldn't believe I'm saying this,

649
00:35:38,904 --> 00:35:40,444
but here, just, here's an idea, right?

650
00:35:40,444 --> 00:35:45,504
Like, if you look at the, the, like, whether it's the most unbelievable

651
00:35:45,524 --> 00:35:49,924
hyperinflationary event, or, you know, the dollar just steadily

652
00:35:49,924 --> 00:35:54,564
devalues 3, 4, 5 percent a year, Bitcoin goes up, 10% compound

653
00:35:54,564 --> 00:35:56,454
annual growth for a long, long time.

654
00:35:56,604 --> 00:35:56,844
Right.

655
00:35:56,844 --> 00:36:00,954
It could be like, you know, or any of the kind of scenarios you, you assign.

656
00:36:01,444 --> 00:36:01,894
Right.

657
00:36:02,134 --> 00:36:08,204
Um, what, what do you do in a world where the currency is manipulated and

658
00:36:08,204 --> 00:36:12,404
devaluing and probably the interest rates below the rate of inflation?

659
00:36:12,434 --> 00:36:13,994
Like what do you, what do you do in that world?

660
00:36:14,374 --> 00:36:16,924
Well, I would say, and if you like study like the hyperinflations

661
00:36:16,924 --> 00:36:17,974
or the high inflations.

662
00:36:18,449 --> 00:36:22,179
The people that got the richest, and not that your goal should be to get rich or

663
00:36:22,179 --> 00:36:26,069
not, but I guess maybe the people that preserve their purchasing power, one of

664
00:36:26,069 --> 00:36:31,209
the things they do is they borrow in the weak currency, long deal liabilities,

665
00:36:31,209 --> 00:36:34,929
whatever it may be, however they may be doing it, and acquiring hard assets.

666
00:36:35,019 --> 00:36:38,279
Like one of the richest guys in Germany, Hugo Steines in Weimar.

667
00:36:39,179 --> 00:36:43,909
He was borrowing in the German mark and acquiring industry and

668
00:36:43,909 --> 00:36:46,239
acquiring gold and speculating, right?

669
00:36:46,739 --> 00:36:49,889
So it's, it's like, well, what's the need for financial services?

670
00:36:49,889 --> 00:36:52,679
And it's like, okay, let's just look at the Bitcoin companies,

671
00:36:53,199 --> 00:36:57,499
you know, mChain, Swans, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

672
00:36:58,159 --> 00:37:01,419
Um, well, like, and I saved just those two.

673
00:37:01,814 --> 00:37:06,564
Because they have dollar lending, uh, facilities where you can post your Bitcoin

674
00:37:07,144 --> 00:37:10,304
and people say, Oh, well, you know, borrow against your Bitcoin leverage.

675
00:37:10,304 --> 00:37:11,204
That's super risky.

676
00:37:11,214 --> 00:37:13,054
It's like, yeah, we'll evaluate your own risks.

677
00:37:13,784 --> 00:37:15,914
But the fact is, and I don't think people understand this,

678
00:37:16,524 --> 00:37:19,824
Unchained has had, and Swan, I think just recently launched theirs.

679
00:37:20,254 --> 00:37:26,204
Unchained has had a dollar lending facility against Bitcoin since

680
00:37:26,224 --> 00:37:28,454
2017 and the interest rate's high.

681
00:37:28,514 --> 00:37:29,314
Yeah, it is.

682
00:37:30,094 --> 00:37:33,444
Um, so if you can get, you know, a cheap cost of capital elsewhere without

683
00:37:33,444 --> 00:37:35,964
collateralizing your Bitcoin, fantastic.

684
00:37:35,994 --> 00:37:36,604
Great for you.

685
00:37:37,154 --> 00:37:40,504
Um, but the reality is this world doesn't require, I don't

686
00:37:40,504 --> 00:37:42,414
need a credit score, right?

687
00:37:42,544 --> 00:37:46,544
I give you 2, I give you 20 bucks a Bitcoin or 25 bucks

688
00:37:46,544 --> 00:37:48,044
a Bitcoin or whatever it is.

689
00:37:48,044 --> 00:37:53,304
And I, depending on how much I give you, uh, it affects the rate I get, right?

690
00:37:53,384 --> 00:37:58,744
And hypothetically in this world, but I borrow 10 based on my 20 bucks a Bitcoin.

691
00:37:59,069 --> 00:38:00,179
Or let's just do it in Bitcoin terms.

692
00:38:00,189 --> 00:38:05,119
I give you two Bitcoin, 40, 000 pop, and I borrow 40, 000, right?

693
00:38:05,869 --> 00:38:10,109
That world, that system, Unchained has never seen a loan default.

694
00:38:10,219 --> 00:38:11,699
Their loan book is a hundred percent.

695
00:38:11,769 --> 00:38:12,909
They've never seen a default.

696
00:38:13,079 --> 00:38:14,119
Like how, how is that?

697
00:38:14,389 --> 00:38:17,199
That's like unbelievable in the world of legacy finance.

698
00:38:17,859 --> 00:38:21,739
The recovery profile is a hundred percent and it takes two minutes, right?

699
00:38:21,739 --> 00:38:24,259
What's the recovery profile on subprime auto loans?

700
00:38:24,359 --> 00:38:26,709
What's the recovery profile on commercial real estate?

701
00:38:27,259 --> 00:38:27,459
Right.

702
00:38:27,459 --> 00:38:31,799
There's, there's not nothing like this exists where I can

703
00:38:32,439 --> 00:38:34,389
liquidate you in an orderly manner.

704
00:38:34,389 --> 00:38:37,339
But before that I can say, Hey, do you have more collateral to post?

705
00:38:37,339 --> 00:38:38,589
Hey, can you pay some down?

706
00:38:38,929 --> 00:38:41,289
Hey, Bitcoin's exchange rate dropped, right?

707
00:38:41,319 --> 00:38:44,549
So in a world where the dollar still is around, yeah, financial

708
00:38:44,549 --> 00:38:46,159
services will exist, right?

709
00:38:46,499 --> 00:38:49,259
Hey, I have a bunch of Bitcoin because I've been accumulating for years.

710
00:38:50,139 --> 00:38:53,989
I would like to buy some Apple stock, or I would like to buy some micro strategy

711
00:38:53,989 --> 00:38:57,279
stock, but I don't want to sell my Bitcoin because I don't want to pay taxes.

712
00:38:57,974 --> 00:39:00,764
Um, and I don't want to, or I just don't want to relinquish my hodl.

713
00:39:00,764 --> 00:39:01,024
Right.

714
00:39:01,064 --> 00:39:03,944
It's like, okay, well, Hey, put some Bitcoin in the brokerage account.

715
00:39:03,954 --> 00:39:05,914
You can borrow against and you can buy some Apple stock.

716
00:39:06,374 --> 00:39:06,624
Right.

717
00:39:06,624 --> 00:39:09,154
It's like, that's, that's something that I would find valuable.

718
00:39:09,754 --> 00:39:12,504
Um, and so financial services absolutely will exist.

719
00:39:13,129 --> 00:39:17,659
Um, just yesterday, two days ago, I think a week ago, and I posted about it and I

720
00:39:17,659 --> 00:39:24,119
kind of, uh, was, was bearish on it, but Sam Altman, right, who, uh, you know,

721
00:39:24,119 --> 00:39:29,519
open, open AI CEO, got ousted, came back famously, uh, is the, the world coin,

722
00:39:29,529 --> 00:39:33,409
you know, distilled world coin, very dystopian idea, uh, is like one of the

723
00:39:33,549 --> 00:39:36,789
co founders there, uh, but just recently announced, you know, a hundred million

724
00:39:36,789 --> 00:39:39,219
dollar private Bitcoin credit fund.

725
00:39:39,269 --> 00:39:40,419
It's like, okay, what does that mean?

726
00:39:40,439 --> 00:39:41,469
And it's basically.

727
00:39:42,034 --> 00:39:45,584
What Genesis and a bunch of the Bitcoin, uh, yield companies

728
00:39:45,584 --> 00:39:47,174
were doing a while ago, right?

729
00:39:47,174 --> 00:39:49,954
Where they're looking to get Bitcoin's denominated yields, and they're

730
00:39:49,954 --> 00:39:52,344
going to be taking directional risks to do that, of course.

731
00:39:52,864 --> 00:39:55,444
And it will blow, I said, likely to blow up at 2026.

732
00:39:56,284 --> 00:39:59,194
And it was kind of tongue in cheek, kind of satire, but also serious, right?

733
00:39:59,194 --> 00:40:00,884
Because the risk free rate of Bitcoin is zero.

734
00:40:01,534 --> 00:40:08,614
But again, right, in a world where there is no, there is no risk free rate, there

735
00:40:08,614 --> 00:40:14,824
is no fed funds set by a board of, you know, 12, 12 men in a, in a room, right?

736
00:40:15,574 --> 00:40:19,504
Well, then, then you're free to do whatever you, you, you

737
00:40:19,504 --> 00:40:21,784
may choose, uh, in that world.

738
00:40:21,794 --> 00:40:25,414
You're free to go to a financial service company and borrow and get dollars.

739
00:40:25,414 --> 00:40:28,674
You're free to, you're free to, you know, directionally

740
00:40:28,674 --> 00:40:30,604
chase yield and it's not yield.

741
00:40:31,139 --> 00:40:35,609
In the same way that, like, there's risk in investing in junk bonds today, right?

742
00:40:35,609 --> 00:40:39,189
If I want to get a 10 percent yield, I can buy, like, IBM bonds,

743
00:40:39,399 --> 00:40:40,599
but they might default, right?

744
00:40:40,709 --> 00:40:43,659
So, like, I think financial services will absolutely exist.

745
00:40:44,479 --> 00:40:50,579
It's just about the, the, the bedrock or the, you know, structure it's built upon.

746
00:40:50,819 --> 00:40:53,512
Uh, it's not built upon, and there'll, there'll be many failures

747
00:40:53,512 --> 00:40:56,449
and there'll be many collapses and there will be many fractional

748
00:40:56,449 --> 00:40:58,019
reserve operations that all collapse.

749
00:40:58,779 --> 00:41:02,154
And FTX collapsed, and All the Bitcoiners.

750
00:41:02,164 --> 00:41:08,644
I went to Pacific Bitcoin, November, 2022, two days after FTX collapsed, and

751
00:41:08,644 --> 00:41:12,514
it was the most happy, not happy in the, in the form like FTX collapsed, like,

752
00:41:12,514 --> 00:41:14,844
Hey, let's party, but no one cared.

753
00:41:14,904 --> 00:41:16,264
Everybody was bullish.

754
00:41:16,904 --> 00:41:20,704
Everybody was, was super optimistic about the future.

755
00:41:21,184 --> 00:41:24,944
And then I talked with some of my crypto friends and was talking

756
00:41:24,944 --> 00:41:26,074
to those people in those circles.

757
00:41:26,104 --> 00:41:29,194
And they're like, and even the macro people that I also am in the same room

758
00:41:29,194 --> 00:41:31,714
with, um, and I talked to frequently.

759
00:41:32,119 --> 00:41:33,839
And the sentiment was like, it's over, man.

760
00:41:33,909 --> 00:41:35,399
It's so over.

761
00:41:35,809 --> 00:41:36,749
Like it's done.

762
00:41:36,849 --> 00:41:39,729
There was a good run, you know, we tried it.

763
00:41:39,789 --> 00:41:42,759
Crypto, it was great, but like, back it up, go home.

764
00:41:43,399 --> 00:41:45,399
I was like, what?

765
00:41:45,669 --> 00:41:50,109
Like, do you guys, are you guys like seeing the same thing I'm seeing?

766
00:41:50,109 --> 00:41:52,059
Like, this is a, the guy was a fraud.

767
00:41:52,099 --> 00:41:54,439
Like, like, this is great that we got him out of here.

768
00:41:54,959 --> 00:41:58,179
Um, and so I think that we'll see that story repeat over and over again.

769
00:41:58,569 --> 00:42:02,169
Uh, but then the need for like quality financial services, right?

770
00:42:02,219 --> 00:42:05,259
Uh, like, especially in a world where the dollar exists, right?

771
00:42:05,739 --> 00:42:09,349
In a world where the dollar exists, then I don't ever want to sell

772
00:42:09,349 --> 00:42:12,809
my Bitcoin because I'm going to have to pay capital gains taxes.

773
00:42:13,679 --> 00:42:16,689
And like, I'm a US citizen, so I pay tax no matter where

774
00:42:16,699 --> 00:42:17,789
I live, anywhere on the globe.

775
00:42:18,444 --> 00:42:21,294
Um, and, uh, and to escape that, I have to relinquish my citizenship.

776
00:42:21,354 --> 00:42:23,504
So do I want to do that?

777
00:42:23,504 --> 00:42:24,344
No, I don't want to do that.

778
00:42:24,374 --> 00:42:25,744
Maybe we'll, I want to do that in the future.

779
00:42:25,784 --> 00:42:26,054
Sure.

780
00:42:26,064 --> 00:42:28,424
But like, I'm going to pay my taxes because I don't want to go in prison.

781
00:42:28,654 --> 00:42:28,954
Right.

782
00:42:29,124 --> 00:42:33,134
Obviously, um, as would any logical, rational person.

783
00:42:33,544 --> 00:42:35,864
So in that world, like, I don't have interest in selling my Bitcoin.

784
00:42:36,014 --> 00:42:40,084
I'm just going to, if I need to borrow against it and invest it.

785
00:42:40,084 --> 00:42:40,404
Right.

786
00:42:40,664 --> 00:42:43,624
But in a world where Bitcoin's a unit of account, then like, sure.

787
00:42:43,704 --> 00:42:46,484
And, and there is no dollar, then like, sure.

788
00:42:46,624 --> 00:42:47,534
And then it's legal tender.

789
00:42:47,534 --> 00:42:48,844
Like I'll invest Bitcoin.

790
00:42:49,299 --> 00:42:53,179
Uh, and to the stock market to acquire Bitcoin denominated returns,

791
00:42:53,229 --> 00:42:56,899
or I'll invest in a, you know, Bitcoin value fund, or I'll put,

792
00:42:56,949 --> 00:43:00,029
you know, I'll buy a laundromat to cash flow in Bitcoin terms, right?

793
00:43:00,029 --> 00:43:04,649
Like, you know, it's just that world right now, and I thought deeply about this,

794
00:43:05,089 --> 00:43:08,139
you know, I have Intelligent Investor by Warren Buffett back there, like.

795
00:43:08,709 --> 00:43:12,909
The value investing world, like why is value underperformed for two decades?

796
00:43:13,549 --> 00:43:19,329
And like some of the smartest people in macro and investing don't get it.

797
00:43:19,429 --> 00:43:23,389
They're like, like, you know, like Warren Buffett, like he's, he's

798
00:43:23,389 --> 00:43:26,639
done well just because he, you know, punted Apple with massive size.

799
00:43:27,254 --> 00:43:29,344
10 years after Apple had already won, right?

800
00:43:29,474 --> 00:43:32,724
And he's made, he's made boatloads of money, but besides that, like

801
00:43:32,724 --> 00:43:36,684
value is deeply, deeply, deeply underperformed for two decades.

802
00:43:36,914 --> 00:43:40,814
And, you know, I would posit that, Hey, maybe like your,

803
00:43:40,904 --> 00:43:43,404
your ruler keeps changing.

804
00:43:43,544 --> 00:43:47,374
Like you're, you're saying like, Hey, this is, this is valuable.

805
00:43:47,374 --> 00:43:50,104
This is, this is a good use of my capital.

806
00:43:50,104 --> 00:43:55,354
And you continue to underperform the people that just punt Nasdaq at any price.

807
00:43:56,484 --> 00:43:57,274
Hmm, you know.

808
00:43:57,924 --> 00:43:59,754
Well, I wonder what could be the cause of that.

809
00:43:59,794 --> 00:44:03,414
And the exciting thing for me is that value investing, you

810
00:44:03,414 --> 00:44:06,254
know, real finance, economics.

811
00:44:06,754 --> 00:44:12,854
Real economic calculation returns in a world where, where the money isn't broken.

812
00:44:13,184 --> 00:44:14,964
Um, so that was a long winded.

813
00:44:14,964 --> 00:44:16,764
I kind of threw a lot at you there, but I think that's,

814
00:44:17,074 --> 00:44:18,324
that's what I'm thinking about.

815
00:44:19,204 --> 00:44:23,144
Yeah, yeah, I don't believe that, uh, financial services nor the

816
00:44:23,144 --> 00:44:25,494
dollar will go away anytime soon.

817
00:44:25,514 --> 00:44:29,564
I'm just trying to, like, I'm fishing for what happens after that.

818
00:44:29,924 --> 00:44:34,324
Because that's, that's the part that I find interesting to, like, that I,

819
00:44:34,414 --> 00:44:39,594
it's my hobby to think about, like, what happens after hyperbitcoinization.

820
00:44:39,904 --> 00:44:45,324
And speaking of, uh Buffett and Munger, just on a side note here, uh, I read

821
00:44:45,324 --> 00:44:49,214
an interesting theory about them that they're They, the reason that they

822
00:44:49,244 --> 00:44:55,394
were so against Bitcoin is because they're, they might not be, might not

823
00:44:55,404 --> 00:44:57,394
have been as ignorant as we thought.

824
00:44:57,584 --> 00:45:01,524
They might totally understand it, it's just that the current system plays

825
00:45:01,524 --> 00:45:05,884
into their hands very much, like, the dollar is beneficial to them.

826
00:45:05,894 --> 00:45:11,944
They're, they're on the receiving end, uh, of that, you know, uh, wealth

827
00:45:11,984 --> 00:45:14,144
distribution from the poor to the rich.

828
00:45:14,394 --> 00:45:15,394
So, uh, yeah.

829
00:45:16,084 --> 00:45:22,474
What I think, yeah, I think the financial sector will, uh, be reduced to what's

830
00:45:22,514 --> 00:45:24,574
absolutely necessary at some point.

831
00:45:25,494 --> 00:45:30,904
But I'm curious as why, about these long term, like, the things you

832
00:45:30,904 --> 00:45:36,444
explain, they're very, like, to me, it's very sound and it's things

833
00:45:36,534 --> 00:45:39,624
that, uh, people should be aware.

834
00:45:39,924 --> 00:45:44,494
of, and they should prepare for what's coming and stuff, what's happening,

835
00:45:44,984 --> 00:45:47,714
like, in a near to midterm future.

836
00:45:47,985 --> 00:45:50,185
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876
00:47:39,700 --> 00:47:45,635
But like, I'm just curious, uh, what do you think, uh, has the most longevity, or

877
00:47:45,635 --> 00:47:48,260
like, what do you think disappears first?

878
00:47:49,150 --> 00:47:52,360
The US, the UK, the EU, or China?

879
00:47:52,720 --> 00:47:56,710
which one has the, the, the, uh, longest survival rate?

880
00:47:56,740 --> 00:48:02,700
Let's throw El Salvador in there for Uh, because why not

881
00:48:03,226 --> 00:48:09,686
I mean, I would say probably, uh, you know, China or the EU in the

882
00:48:09,686 --> 00:48:14,306
sense of, um, and, and by the EU, I don't mean like societal collapse.

883
00:48:14,306 --> 00:48:14,776
I mean.

884
00:48:14,856 --> 00:48:21,096
I actually, like with, as a, um, you know, a bit of, especially the last

885
00:48:21,096 --> 00:48:23,936
12 months, I've become like more of a history buff than I was previously.

886
00:48:23,936 --> 00:48:27,456
And I still need to touch up on a whole lot of stuff, but I spent the last couple

887
00:48:27,456 --> 00:48:31,946
of years traveling a little bit around Europe and the unique culture, uh, and

888
00:48:31,966 --> 00:48:36,076
the language and the deep history and all these places is super, super fascinating.

889
00:48:36,086 --> 00:48:37,076
The architecture is beautiful.

890
00:48:37,256 --> 00:48:40,746
I mean, you know, I lived somewhat for most of my life

891
00:48:40,746 --> 00:48:42,256
in a very much American bubble.

892
00:48:42,731 --> 00:48:47,061
Um, so seeing Europe was like very much, uh, just, you know, eye opening.

893
00:48:47,441 --> 00:48:52,041
Um, so, you know, the European Union will persist and thrive

894
00:48:52,411 --> 00:48:55,731
regardless of the demographics and all this, you know, sort of stuff.

895
00:48:56,186 --> 00:48:59,806
Without the EU, a hundred percent, without this, you know, sprawling

896
00:48:59,816 --> 00:49:05,886
bureaucracy of, you know, um, kind of project managers that are trying to take

897
00:49:05,886 --> 00:49:07,646
away everybody's rights and freedoms.

898
00:49:07,806 --> 00:49:11,866
Um, so yeah, I mean, I would, I would very much like to see that, uh, return,

899
00:49:11,886 --> 00:49:15,216
you know, sovereignty returned to the individual nations in the, in the

900
00:49:15,601 --> 00:49:20,041
yeah, yeah, but, okay, okay, let me stop you right there, because, like, yeah, I

901
00:49:20,061 --> 00:49:25,311
think Europe as a concept has a very long survival rate, but I'm talking more about

902
00:49:25,311 --> 00:49:29,718
these institutions, like, US government, and the EU, and those structures, and

903
00:49:30,143 --> 00:49:35,283
The, the CCP, if you will, like these bureaucratic and like entities that

904
00:49:35,283 --> 00:49:40,053
we call nations, which one dies first?

905
00:49:40,470 --> 00:49:41,160
I don't think it's the U.

906
00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:42,390
S., um.

907
00:49:42,710 --> 00:49:47,550
I, I mean, they're, uh, you know, the U.

908
00:49:47,550 --> 00:49:47,810
S.

909
00:49:48,130 --> 00:49:50,250
is obviously very, very powerful.

910
00:49:50,290 --> 00:49:53,940
Um, I think just the, the, the structure of, of state rights,

911
00:49:54,666 --> 00:49:58,476
under kind of one union is a little bit, is a, is a, is a great system.

912
00:49:58,516 --> 00:49:59,686
Obviously, I mean, like the U.

913
00:49:59,686 --> 00:49:59,856
S.

914
00:50:01,071 --> 00:50:05,971
Yeah, we do have a billion guns, so any, any sort of over, uh, you

915
00:50:05,971 --> 00:50:09,291
know, the government oversteps you, there is that ultimate backstop.

916
00:50:10,081 --> 00:50:15,551
Um, the CCP has, you know, this obviously, this digital panopticon surveillance

917
00:50:15,561 --> 00:50:22,376
state that's highly technical, um, and it is kind of built on the backs of Uh, you

918
00:50:22,376 --> 00:50:28,006
know, industrialization and never, ever, uh, you know, ever expanding debt burdens.

919
00:50:28,066 --> 00:50:32,946
Um, and so, you know, who could have, like, who would have thought the

920
00:50:32,946 --> 00:50:36,860
Soviet Union would have collapsed, you know, in the height of the Cold War?

921
00:50:36,870 --> 00:50:38,960
You know, if you said, hey, the Soviet Union is going to collapse

922
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:42,050
in 15 years or 10 years or 7 years, like, who would have believed that?

923
00:50:42,330 --> 00:50:45,750
No, like, uh, if I may interrupt you there, Dylan, because this is

924
00:50:45,750 --> 00:50:48,420
sort of why I asked the question, because I lived through that.

925
00:50:48,720 --> 00:50:52,440
And I lived in a quote unquote neutral country.

926
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:59,205
So, so, uh, my entire upbringing, I was Uh, taught in public school that

927
00:50:59,447 --> 00:51:00,267
the, the U.

928
00:51:00,267 --> 00:51:01,377
S., the, the U.

929
00:51:01,377 --> 00:51:01,577
S.

930
00:51:01,577 --> 00:51:03,807
and the Soviet, that, like, that's the Cold War.

931
00:51:04,027 --> 00:51:07,687
You have this balance of power between capitalism and socialism.

932
00:51:08,057 --> 00:51:12,077
And, uh, the way we were taught in schools, that it was like, these,

933
00:51:12,297 --> 00:51:17,492
these were two Different systems, but they're sort of equal in terms of worth.

934
00:51:17,842 --> 00:51:21,912
Like, so, so this system is just as sustainable as the other.

935
00:51:22,392 --> 00:51:26,032
And, uh, we'll see what happens, but they're sort of equal.

936
00:51:26,122 --> 00:51:29,962
And that's what everyone thought over, uh, back in Sweden in the 80s.

937
00:51:30,442 --> 00:51:35,737
So, so no one saw the, the fall of the Soviets coming, and, and, uh, like That's

938
00:51:35,737 --> 00:51:40,627
why I'm so, so fascinated about this because I don't, I don't think anyone

939
00:51:40,677 --> 00:51:44,727
ever predicts empires falling, like in hindsight it was obvious because the

940
00:51:44,727 --> 00:51:49,377
Soviet Union was basically just a giant prison for 70 years and people were

941
00:51:49,387 --> 00:51:55,367
starving and not doing shit, so it had to collapse at some point because it

942
00:51:55,377 --> 00:52:01,217
was unsustainable, like totalitarianism doesn't work in the long run, uh, but

943
00:52:01,217 --> 00:52:05,292
I think it's a little harder to predict with Pseudo The, the powers that be today,

944
00:52:05,292 --> 00:52:09,682
because we're, like, here in Europe, it's sort of like the East is the new West,

945
00:52:09,712 --> 00:52:16,872
because the, the, the former Soviet states are much more inclined to, to, uh, you

946
00:52:16,872 --> 00:52:22,632
know, not doing what they're told and to disobey whatever the government says.

947
00:52:23,162 --> 00:52:28,492
Well, whilst in the West, uh, in Western Europe, everyone was putting on masks

948
00:52:28,492 --> 00:52:33,392
and taking booster shots as soon as anything was said about that thing.

949
00:52:33,802 --> 00:52:37,682
Like, it's like, of course, virtue, virtue.

950
00:52:38,112 --> 00:52:44,082
Um, so, so I think the West is on the same path as the East used

951
00:52:44,092 --> 00:52:47,192
to be, and the East is on the same path as the West used to be.

952
00:52:47,602 --> 00:52:49,962
So there's some pendulum effect going on over here.

953
00:52:50,674 --> 00:52:52,134
No, that's a great point.

954
00:52:52,294 --> 00:52:57,014
Um, and I mean, obviously, uh, you know, being under communist

955
00:52:57,014 --> 00:52:58,444
rule will do that to you.

956
00:52:58,594 --> 00:53:02,444
Uh, the collectivism in the West is, is worrisome, obviously.

957
00:53:02,484 --> 00:53:05,764
I, I understand it and sympathize with it.

958
00:53:05,854 --> 00:53:09,994
I obviously am very much against it, uh, and allocate all of my time

959
00:53:09,994 --> 00:53:14,414
and capital to not, to insulating myself from it, obviously.

960
00:53:14,594 --> 00:53:15,074
Um.

961
00:53:15,409 --> 00:53:21,019
But, you know, some of these, these macro, you know, uh, forces, societal forces

962
00:53:21,019 --> 00:53:26,019
are much too large for an individual to overcome or change completely.

963
00:53:26,019 --> 00:53:31,389
We're kind of, um, at the whims of, of these shifts, uh, is obviously,

964
00:53:31,389 --> 00:53:36,174
but I mean, if I think of like, Obviously that communism as an idea,

965
00:53:36,354 --> 00:53:40,114
uh, and how it's presented and how you view it, like how the media

966
00:53:40,114 --> 00:53:43,974
presents it is obviously, it seems much more stable than it actually is.

967
00:53:44,254 --> 00:53:46,124
Um, so that's one thing.

968
00:53:46,134 --> 00:53:49,674
And I think, you know, so like, that would probably be very much bearish on,

969
00:53:49,754 --> 00:53:54,594
on China as this As this project, uh, you know, we see all the, like, what is it?

970
00:53:54,594 --> 00:53:56,134
The, the ghost cities, right?

971
00:53:56,134 --> 00:54:00,354
These, these things that were constructed and, and, you know, the GDP number go

972
00:54:00,354 --> 00:54:04,844
up, right, when really like nothing of long term value is, is, is produced.

973
00:54:05,154 --> 00:54:08,604
Um, but I am a little bearish, um, and I don't have, you

974
00:54:08,604 --> 00:54:10,634
know, a catalyst per se, or.

975
00:54:11,034 --> 00:54:14,624
One event or even a timeline, but the Euro has an idea, right?

976
00:54:14,624 --> 00:54:16,674
Like everybody's like, Oh, Bitcoin is this experiment.

977
00:54:16,674 --> 00:54:18,554
It's like, no, well, yeah, sure it is.

978
00:54:18,634 --> 00:54:22,554
But so is the Euro, like, like the Euro taking all these sovereignties.

979
00:54:22,554 --> 00:54:23,994
I don't even know how many countries is that?

980
00:54:23,994 --> 00:54:24,424
Like, what is it?

981
00:54:24,474 --> 00:54:27,784
15, 19, something, how many countries are using the Euro?

982
00:54:27,894 --> 00:54:30,644
Um, and you know, I think I just went to Croatia for a month.

983
00:54:30,774 --> 00:54:34,554
Uh, I was in split Croatia for a month in October and they just

984
00:54:34,554 --> 00:54:35,864
recently started using the Euro.

985
00:54:35,984 --> 00:54:39,134
Um, but you have this model where the different demographics,

986
00:54:39,194 --> 00:54:40,964
you know, uh, and, and.

987
00:54:41,377 --> 00:54:45,197
the productivity of these states, like, you know, the Italy and Spain

988
00:54:45,197 --> 00:54:49,357
and Greece and Portugal, um, are kind of these tourist hubs with not great

989
00:54:49,357 --> 00:54:53,177
demographics while Germany is, is subsidizing everybody, but also this

990
00:54:53,177 --> 00:54:57,747
manufacturing hub, um, that's, you know, benefiting because of the, the weaker

991
00:54:57,767 --> 00:55:02,277
currency, um, than would otherwise exist in a manufacturing hub like Germany.

992
00:55:02,597 --> 00:55:05,797
And obviously, you know, the Russia Ukraine war, the natural gas,

993
00:55:05,847 --> 00:55:09,667
like, so I, I see the Euro and the ECB structure splintering a bit.

994
00:55:10,107 --> 00:55:14,717
And I think eventually, uh, a lot of these nations, um, realize, or, you

995
00:55:14,717 --> 00:55:20,077
know, I think there's going to be a lot of populist, uh, sort of far right,

996
00:55:20,147 --> 00:55:22,447
if you will, tides, um, this decade.

997
00:55:22,592 --> 00:55:23,552
type things.

998
00:55:24,177 --> 00:55:27,456
Yeah, I think it's, it's, it's a natural, I mean, this is a bit

999
00:55:27,456 --> 00:55:31,746
more political than just, you know, economic or even philosophical, but.

1000
00:55:32,281 --> 00:55:37,011
You know, the, the nationalist, um, kind of like right rising,

1001
00:55:37,491 --> 00:55:40,861
um, is, is a natural reaction.

1002
00:55:40,861 --> 00:55:44,961
It's a natural immune response and not that it's, you know, but, but

1003
00:55:44,961 --> 00:55:48,281
like pushing unfettered immigration and these, these, you know,

1004
00:55:48,281 --> 00:55:50,191
overarching demographic changes and.

1005
00:55:50,676 --> 00:55:54,906
And, you know, basically like labeling anybody that doesn't like say like,

1006
00:55:54,906 --> 00:55:57,586
yeah, you know, this is obviously great.

1007
00:55:57,766 --> 00:56:02,396
Uh, you know, changing like hundreds of years of, of history and culture.

1008
00:56:02,526 --> 00:56:08,036
Um, like calling anybody a bigot that doesn't want this stuff, you know, or

1009
00:56:08,036 --> 00:56:13,036
labeling them as like far right extremism, not just in Europe and in the US, but

1010
00:56:13,036 --> 00:56:14,586
like, it's obviously a different story.

1011
00:56:14,876 --> 00:56:16,146
Um, the details.

1012
00:56:16,601 --> 00:56:20,921
Uh, this is obviously like, it's, it's very much similar and it's happening,

1013
00:56:20,951 --> 00:56:22,601
it's happening everywhere, right?

1014
00:56:22,861 --> 00:56:25,671
Um, and it, and it results and it's manifesting in different ways.

1015
00:56:26,231 --> 00:56:28,881
But I think you see that this decade, especially, and

1016
00:56:28,881 --> 00:56:29,591
this is, I mean, this is what

1017
00:56:29,671 --> 00:56:32,741
the backlash, backlash is already here.

1018
00:56:33,061 --> 00:56:38,491
I mean, and it's connected to all of this stuff, like Woke Disney

1019
00:56:38,491 --> 00:56:41,511
and the MCU and all of this stuff.

1020
00:56:41,771 --> 00:56:45,251
It's also getting its long overdue backlash now.

1021
00:56:45,561 --> 00:56:54,331
And so all of this Woke stuff and calling anyone who doesn't agree, uh Uh,

1022
00:56:54,331 --> 00:56:57,971
a Nazi, uh, it's getting its overdue.

1023
00:56:57,971 --> 00:56:58,481
Backlash?

1024
00:56:58,481 --> 00:56:58,811
Yes.

1025
00:56:59,444 --> 00:57:03,574
Yeah, well, I, I think we, we very much agree there and it's, it's more so just

1026
00:57:03,634 --> 00:57:05,214
like the pendulum always swings back.

1027
00:57:05,324 --> 00:57:11,124
Um, so, you know, when you, when you try to push people, the populace, you

1028
00:57:11,124 --> 00:57:14,754
know, the tide of what's considered mainstream or the Overton window

1029
00:57:14,754 --> 00:57:20,319
or You know, uh, this far left or, you know, this far right, but

1030
00:57:20,379 --> 00:57:22,269
you, you push a pendulum one way.

1031
00:57:22,709 --> 00:57:25,699
You know, there is an equal reaction on the other side of that.

1032
00:57:25,699 --> 00:57:28,149
And I think that's what we're seeing, um, we're starting to see.

1033
00:57:28,149 --> 00:57:32,589
So, uh, you know, that, what does that lead to?

1034
00:57:32,589 --> 00:57:34,349
Does that lead to the splintering of an EU?

1035
00:57:34,379 --> 00:57:37,179
Does that lead to the splintering of a Euro as a construct?

1036
00:57:37,199 --> 00:57:39,239
Like, again, who knows?

1037
00:57:39,239 --> 00:57:43,009
And none of this happens next month or next year or like, but it's, it's a

1038
00:57:43,009 --> 00:57:46,879
slow, it's a slow process, but it's a gradually then suddenly process, I think.

1039
00:57:47,319 --> 00:57:50,619
Um, and, you know, we're in one of those time periods, like there's.

1040
00:57:51,374 --> 00:57:55,184
There's decades where nothing happens and, um, or I, there's a saying there,

1041
00:57:55,264 --> 00:57:58,824
um, there's, there's decades where years happen, or I don't even know the

1042
00:57:58,824 --> 00:58:02,334
saying, but we're in the, we're in the years where decades happen now, um.

1043
00:58:02,804 --> 00:58:07,914
And, you know, certainly we're living in interesting times, um, and so, you

1044
00:58:07,914 --> 00:58:12,344
know, and a lot of this I think is very much intertwined with these, uh,

1045
00:58:12,374 --> 00:58:13,874
you know, these debt cycles, right?

1046
00:58:13,874 --> 00:58:18,234
These 80 year debt super cycles, these, these, uh, you know, the rise

1047
00:58:18,294 --> 00:58:19,994
and fall of these powers, right?

1048
00:58:20,034 --> 00:58:22,674
I think everything's very much intertwined and connected.

1049
00:58:23,184 --> 00:58:27,934
Um, and the West, uh, Assis Global Hegemon, uh, is obviously

1050
00:58:27,934 --> 00:58:29,064
still, you know, the U.

1051
00:58:29,064 --> 00:58:29,264
S.

1052
00:58:29,404 --> 00:58:34,364
and the West, broadly, NATO is obviously still the power at large, but if you

1053
00:58:34,364 --> 00:58:38,529
just rewind to 20 years ago, right, or like, let's just say post, Post collapse

1054
00:58:38,529 --> 00:58:40,559
of the Soviet Union, 1990s, right?

1055
00:58:41,199 --> 00:58:41,549
The U.

1056
00:58:41,549 --> 00:58:41,769
S.

1057
00:58:42,339 --> 00:58:47,269
and I guess just the West, broadly, was the largest absolute and

1058
00:58:47,269 --> 00:58:50,719
relative hegemon the world has ever seen in recorded history.

1059
00:58:51,229 --> 00:58:58,239
From a political, military, technological, um, standpoint, financial,

1060
00:58:58,669 --> 00:59:04,519
there had never, there had never been a larger relative or absolute

1061
00:59:04,549 --> 00:59:06,349
power in the history of the world.

1062
00:59:07,179 --> 00:59:11,469
Um, and that, that hasn't crumbled far from it, but that

1063
00:59:11,469 --> 00:59:13,749
relative power has shifted, right?

1064
00:59:13,749 --> 00:59:18,189
Where, where 30, 20, 30 years ago, you couldn't, you, I guess, like 25 years

1065
00:59:18,189 --> 00:59:24,629
ago, you couldn't have imagined a nation or a coalition of nations, you know, not

1066
00:59:24,629 --> 00:59:29,279
really like kind of laughing or, or like, you know, turning away from the U S right.

1067
00:59:29,599 --> 00:59:32,959
Or, or, you know, like OPEC and Russia, right?

1068
00:59:32,969 --> 00:59:34,099
Like coming together and.

1069
00:59:34,829 --> 00:59:36,469
And talking oil while the U.

1070
00:59:36,469 --> 00:59:36,659
S.

1071
00:59:36,669 --> 00:59:40,049
isn't in the conversation, like that is, is, is, you know, unimaginable, or trading

1072
00:59:40,049 --> 00:59:41,479
in yuan, like these sort of things.

1073
00:59:42,159 --> 00:59:42,509
Right.

1074
00:59:42,589 --> 00:59:46,779
Um, and that happening kind of tells you, like, about the state of things

1075
00:59:46,789 --> 00:59:51,349
and not that collapse is like absolutely imminent, but more so that the, the

1076
00:59:51,379 --> 00:59:56,599
power, you know, underneath the surface has been relatively, relatively shifting.

1077
00:59:56,689 --> 00:59:57,059
Right.

1078
00:59:57,209 --> 01:00:02,369
And so, you know, what, what results of this, like culturally, militarily.

1079
01:00:02,859 --> 01:00:04,379
Financially, right?

1080
01:00:04,389 --> 01:00:08,359
These are like huge, huge questions, but I think, you know, a lot of this

1081
01:00:08,369 --> 01:00:12,349
coming to the head at the same time, like it's certainly not a coincidence.

1082
01:00:13,164 --> 01:00:16,974
No, uh, you said, uh, a thing about, you know, Germany

1083
01:00:16,974 --> 01:00:19,014
subsidizing the pigs countries.

1084
01:00:19,074 --> 01:00:24,254
Uh, the, this is the, the, there's a funny way to look at that, and that is,

1085
01:00:24,314 --> 01:00:30,494
uh, you know, Germany makes all this money from making mercedeses and BMWs

1086
01:00:30,494 --> 01:00:34,064
and whatnot, and orders and selling them.

1087
01:00:34,304 --> 01:00:40,884
To, to Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, uh, uh, it's just the,

1088
01:00:41,374 --> 01:00:45,244
the problem is just that these countries can't afford them really.

1089
01:00:45,624 --> 01:00:49,484
So they take on a lot of debt, and then Germany has to bail them out.

1090
01:00:49,924 --> 01:00:54,074
So what's really going on is that they're getting the BMWs at a discount.

1091
01:00:54,749 --> 01:01:01,329
Uh, through, uh, through, uh, uh, uh, a giant maze of bureaucracy,

1092
01:01:01,329 --> 01:01:02,749
but that's what's really going on.

1093
01:01:02,779 --> 01:01:05,529
So it's your redistributing resources.

1094
01:01:05,549 --> 01:01:10,969
So the Germans think that they get well paid for their BMWs, but in reality, they

1095
01:01:10,969 --> 01:01:12,679
don't because they have to pay the debts.

1096
01:01:13,389 --> 01:01:18,679
And yeah, now they have other debts to pay as well as we move into the next decade,

1097
01:01:18,979 --> 01:01:21,269
but that's another story for another time.

1098
01:01:21,717 --> 01:01:24,977
The, the European economic model is, is always fascinating to look at.

1099
01:01:25,067 --> 01:01:30,027
And it's always, every once in a while I catch myself, uh, you know, whether

1100
01:01:30,027 --> 01:01:34,127
I'm in the debate myself or, uh, you know, just reading third party commentary

1101
01:01:34,127 --> 01:01:39,017
of like someone comparing like the economic model of like, you know,

1102
01:01:39,167 --> 01:01:41,217
a Scandinavian nation with the U S.

1103
01:01:41,377 --> 01:01:46,032
And they're like, But they, look at their healthcare, or like look at their, look

1104
01:01:46,032 --> 01:01:50,122
at their, you know, look at their murder rate, or like, and I'm just like, oh, you

1105
01:01:50,122 --> 01:01:54,952
know, you're comparing a small homogenous nation, you know, in the European Union

1106
01:01:54,952 --> 01:02:01,122
of six, six million people, uh, to this sprawling landmass of 360 million, uh, you

1107
01:02:01,207 --> 01:02:01,917
Yeah, yeah, okay.

1108
01:02:02,552 --> 01:02:06,542
It's like, it's just a, it's always, it's always an interesting

1109
01:02:06,552 --> 01:02:08,142
convo, um, where that leads.

1110
01:02:08,142 --> 01:02:10,482
But, uh, yeah, no, I, I agree.

1111
01:02:11,567 --> 01:02:15,317
And if, if Sweden was a state in the U.

1112
01:02:15,317 --> 01:02:20,487
S., we would be in the top, uh, in the bottom five states in terms of GDP.

1113
01:02:21,007 --> 01:02:22,927
So, so there's that.

1114
01:02:23,307 --> 01:02:29,647
And, uh, also, like other interesting facts, uh, Democrats promote this, uh,

1115
01:02:29,657 --> 01:02:34,227
Scandinavian model to be, so, so, like a role model for the rest of the world.

1116
01:02:34,707 --> 01:02:38,737
But the thing is, in Sweden, who has Where the model sort of comes from,

1117
01:02:39,127 --> 01:02:45,757
uh, 49 of the 50 biggest companies were founded before this whole thing started.

1118
01:02:46,277 --> 01:02:52,117
So the models have done nothing but, you know, extract the wealth that

1119
01:02:52,137 --> 01:02:57,347
was already there and sort of put all the countries on the wrong path.

1120
01:02:58,027 --> 01:03:02,437
Uh, so, uh, it's really kind of depressing that it's getting

1121
01:03:02,437 --> 01:03:04,327
promoted as something that it isn't.

1122
01:03:05,467 --> 01:03:08,907
Because it's just a giant cost at the end of the day.

1123
01:03:09,582 --> 01:03:15,372
And not to mention, like, and this is a much larger convo, but the, the whole

1124
01:03:15,822 --> 01:03:22,162
European economic model is, you know, uh, that's like, like NATO, like the U.

1125
01:03:22,162 --> 01:03:22,402
S.

1126
01:03:22,672 --> 01:03:24,102
provides their security budget.

1127
01:03:24,372 --> 01:03:28,732
So it's like, if, you know, it's like, oh, you know, why don't they have free,

1128
01:03:29,012 --> 01:03:29,992
why don't they have free healthcare?

1129
01:03:29,992 --> 01:03:31,322
It's like, oh, well, you know.

1130
01:03:31,797 --> 01:03:32,827
The deal is the U.

1131
01:03:32,827 --> 01:03:33,037
S.

1132
01:03:33,117 --> 01:03:39,287
is the world's policeman, big brother, and, uh, you know, so all these European

1133
01:03:39,287 --> 01:03:44,217
nations can have, can have this or that, and, uh, you know, without the, if they

1134
01:03:44,217 --> 01:03:47,927
had to provide their own military and they had to, you know, secure their

1135
01:03:47,927 --> 01:03:51,967
own trade routes, like, this looks like a different nation, obviously,

1136
01:03:52,337 --> 01:03:53,627
but that's never in the discussion.

1137
01:03:54,203 --> 01:03:59,213
Then again, a big part of the relative success of the US compared to every

1138
01:03:59,213 --> 01:04:03,923
other nation state is just the fact that you went off the gold standard in

1139
01:04:03,923 --> 01:04:08,883
71 and therefore you can print things out of thin air and pay for everything.

1140
01:04:09,393 --> 01:04:13,403
Like, give me your resources and I'll give you this fictitious shit.

1141
01:04:13,893 --> 01:04:15,993
Like, that's the success story there.

1142
01:04:16,513 --> 01:04:19,743
And, yeah, I think It's depressing.

1143
01:04:20,110 --> 01:04:22,810
maybe to take us in a slightly different direction here, talking

1144
01:04:22,820 --> 01:04:27,880
about things collapsing and all this, uh, is there an optimistic angle here?

1145
01:04:27,880 --> 01:04:31,680
Do you, do you have hope for what Bitcoin can do for the world?

1146
01:04:31,680 --> 01:04:32,800
What's, what's your view on that?

1147
01:04:33,233 --> 01:04:34,023
Yeah, absolutely.

1148
01:04:34,023 --> 01:04:39,233
I mean, I, I think it's, um, I mean, I tweeted this yesterday and have already

1149
01:04:39,233 --> 01:04:43,193
mentioned the sovereign individual, um, you know, a couple of times today,

1150
01:04:43,193 --> 01:04:48,533
but I, I believe Bitcoin as this, as this piece of, uh, you know, property,

1151
01:04:48,533 --> 01:04:53,263
uh, or, um, this, this asset that, you know, completely returns the property

1152
01:04:53,263 --> 01:04:59,323
rights to you, the individual, is a great forcing function for, um, for,

1153
01:04:59,353 --> 01:05:03,003
for governments and, and, you know, peaceful cooperation everywhere, right?

1154
01:05:03,313 --> 01:05:07,703
If, if coercion is, is via technology removed.

1155
01:05:08,092 --> 01:05:12,282
from the, you know, bargaining table, this changes, this changes

1156
01:05:12,292 --> 01:05:13,622
the power dynamic everywhere.

1157
01:05:13,982 --> 01:05:18,162
It, it, it changes the, the logic of violence, if you will, right?

1158
01:05:18,162 --> 01:05:21,812
Like, you think about like every war, like, you know, the tanks rolled in,

1159
01:05:21,822 --> 01:05:23,772
they come and take your gold, right?

1160
01:05:24,062 --> 01:05:27,192
But if, if I, if, if you come up to me with a gun and say, I'm going

1161
01:05:27,192 --> 01:05:29,462
to kill you, give me your money.

1162
01:05:29,472 --> 01:05:32,058
And I say, kill me, you're not having my money.

1163
01:05:32,615 --> 01:05:32,865
Right?

1164
01:05:32,945 --> 01:05:34,365
Like that, that changes things.

1165
01:05:34,565 --> 01:05:39,215
Um, and that, and that's never been, that's never, that's never existed ever.

1166
01:05:39,285 --> 01:05:42,965
And so I present this to you as, you know, it's sort of a radical,

1167
01:05:42,965 --> 01:05:45,810
uh individual, uh, example.

1168
01:05:45,950 --> 01:05:46,300
Right.

1169
01:05:46,510 --> 01:05:48,860
But this is, you can extrapolate this at large.

1170
01:05:48,930 --> 01:05:54,170
Um, and so, you know, nevermind that, like, but also, you know, what

1171
01:05:54,180 --> 01:05:59,090
Bitcoin does with, with regards to, you know, the energy grid, um, and,

1172
01:05:59,090 --> 01:06:01,180
and global energy systems at large.

1173
01:06:01,815 --> 01:06:05,605
Um, kind of chasing this, like, Kardashev, uh, sort of civilization

1174
01:06:05,605 --> 01:06:09,655
where all energy is used as efficiently and effectively as possible.

1175
01:06:10,145 --> 01:06:15,085
Um, you know, this sort of broader idea of, of, you know, human flourishing is

1176
01:06:15,085 --> 01:06:17,235
a derivative of our ability to harness.

1177
01:06:18,070 --> 01:06:23,467
Uh, and capture energy efficiently, right, like, you know, say, you know,

1178
01:06:23,467 --> 01:06:27,997
say what you will about the industrial revolution and its, uh, consequences

1179
01:06:27,997 --> 01:06:32,537
on the human race, but, um, but it's, you know, if you think about living

1180
01:06:32,537 --> 01:06:37,232
standards, quality of life, Um, you know, the average life expectancy, but if you

1181
01:06:37,232 --> 01:06:42,082
are pro humanity, you know, you have to just accept as a fact empirically that

1182
01:06:42,682 --> 01:06:48,362
energy, you know, uh, you know, producing and utilizing energy, um, in any form,

1183
01:06:48,852 --> 01:06:55,362
um, you know, fossil fuels or, or not, um, is a good thing for humanity, right?

1184
01:06:55,362 --> 01:06:57,252
It's raised our living standards.

1185
01:06:58,022 --> 01:07:01,002
Um, and you know, unless you're a Malthusian, then you, you can agree

1186
01:07:01,002 --> 01:07:02,462
with that and say that that's good.

1187
01:07:02,882 --> 01:07:06,352
And so an energy money, an energy currency, a direct incentive to

1188
01:07:06,682 --> 01:07:10,042
monetize all waste energy in the world.

1189
01:07:10,382 --> 01:07:14,572
Every, every, you know, cubic foot of, of natural gas that

1190
01:07:14,572 --> 01:07:15,632
otherwise would be flared.

1191
01:07:16,352 --> 01:07:20,212
Um, you know, and methane that, you know, goes to the atmosphere instead,

1192
01:07:20,422 --> 01:07:25,562
if we capture it and combust all of that energy, right, around the world, and we

1193
01:07:25,562 --> 01:07:29,632
use it to secure a fundamentally sound monetary system, like, what are the second

1194
01:07:29,632 --> 01:07:32,492
and third order effects of such an idea?

1195
01:07:32,602 --> 01:07:37,192
Um, and like, you know, there's only probably a couple hundred thousand people

1196
01:07:37,252 --> 01:07:40,382
on the small corner of the internet that have actually pondered that idea.

1197
01:07:40,927 --> 01:07:42,137
Um, at a deep level.

1198
01:07:42,187 --> 01:07:43,357
So like, that's really exciting.

1199
01:07:43,477 --> 01:07:46,983
and like the, the, the consequences are profound.

1200
01:07:47,213 --> 01:07:51,293
Um, and we obviously don't really know what the, what the result of all that is.

1201
01:07:51,753 --> 01:07:54,583
So yeah, I'm, I'm super, super bullish and super optimistic.

1202
01:07:55,228 --> 01:07:58,718
Um, but also I think like, you know, maybe the first half of the conversation

1203
01:07:58,718 --> 01:08:01,768
or like the subsets of the conversation where we're talking about collapse

1204
01:08:01,918 --> 01:08:05,588
or maybe these more doomy scenarios are, are not a result of Bitcoin.

1205
01:08:06,178 --> 01:08:13,638
Um, it's, it's a result of, you know, decades, centuries of humans, central

1206
01:08:13,638 --> 01:08:19,348
planning, uh, you know, the, the tides of history and, um, the result of.

1207
01:08:20,293 --> 01:08:25,323
You know, this, um, this desire by humans to be, to be free and this kind

1208
01:08:25,323 --> 01:08:30,543
of emergent system, um, while others attempt to control them and coerce them.

1209
01:08:31,013 --> 01:08:35,410
And so this, this liberating technology kind of coming from nothing, coming

1210
01:08:35,410 --> 01:08:39,750
from zero, coming from this guy in this basement that released this open source

1211
01:08:39,750 --> 01:08:43,980
code that no one knows who he is, is what I've said multiple times is like

1212
01:08:43,980 --> 01:08:45,630
the most powerful idea of our time.

1213
01:08:46,020 --> 01:08:47,530
Um, and it's why I'm all in on it.

1214
01:08:47,550 --> 01:08:48,060
It's like.

1215
01:08:48,665 --> 01:08:51,975
If Bitcoin fails, then like we have bigger problems.

1216
01:08:52,025 --> 01:08:56,835
So like, I, I should just go all in because like, and not like, like, I'm

1217
01:08:56,835 --> 01:09:00,355
not, and not to say all in as in like everybody listening, put all your money

1218
01:09:00,355 --> 01:09:05,035
in Bitcoin and don't think twice, but more so like when you really go think

1219
01:09:05,045 --> 01:09:09,925
through it all and you think through like where this all is headed, the world,

1220
01:09:10,005 --> 01:09:16,525
technology, politics, freedom, censorship, and you ponder that and you think,

1221
01:09:16,535 --> 01:09:18,375
okay, well, if there's a world that.

1222
01:09:19,140 --> 01:09:22,930
This freedom technology, this open, neutral network

1223
01:09:23,100 --> 01:09:24,880
can exist or doesn't exist.

1224
01:09:24,910 --> 01:09:27,390
Or for some reason that I haven't thought through fails,

1225
01:09:28,140 --> 01:09:29,660
what does that world look like?

1226
01:09:29,870 --> 01:09:33,270
Like, if this fails, if this idea fails and whatever, you

1227
01:09:33,270 --> 01:09:37,640
know, quantify or qualify failure as whatever you want it to be.

1228
01:09:38,250 --> 01:09:40,460
But if it fails, then like, we're screwed anyway.

1229
01:09:40,760 --> 01:09:47,890
Like, so, like, I So, for me then, like, logically, like, I must,

1230
01:09:48,710 --> 01:09:53,200
you know, wholly go all in because there's no other alternative.

1231
01:09:53,730 --> 01:09:56,350
Um, so, yeah, that's how I think about it.

1232
01:09:56,670 --> 01:10:02,690
Yeah, it's a good thing to take this conversation in a more optimistic way.

1233
01:10:03,150 --> 01:10:06,860
Because, like, for all the doom and gloom here, I'm insanely

1234
01:10:06,860 --> 01:10:08,240
optimistic about this thing.

1235
01:10:08,250 --> 01:10:13,860
Like, not only Bitcoin, but But all the, like, being able to have a Zoom call with

1236
01:10:13,860 --> 01:10:17,720
you on the other side of the Atlantic, I find that absolutely fascinating.

1237
01:10:18,070 --> 01:10:23,570
Like, whenever I'm in a, whenever I'm in a plane, I am absolutely in awe of the fact

1238
01:10:23,580 --> 01:10:25,380
that we've built something that can fly.

1239
01:10:25,500 --> 01:10:28,420
Like, people, people don't appreciate these things.

1240
01:10:28,540 --> 01:10:32,120
We take them for granted, but, like, of course we got this.

1241
01:10:32,120 --> 01:10:34,840
We can communicate with whomever we want.

1242
01:10:35,137 --> 01:10:37,877
Anywhere on the planet by the click of a button, and we can

1243
01:10:37,877 --> 01:10:44,247
send the money, frictionless and anonymous, uh, and uncensorable, uh,

1244
01:10:44,287 --> 01:10:47,457
uncensorable, uh, anywhere, to anyone.

1245
01:10:47,837 --> 01:10:48,997
So of course we got this.

1246
01:10:49,457 --> 01:10:54,827
Like, we got here because of the free market, and like, we didn't get here

1247
01:10:54,837 --> 01:11:00,052
because of these Coercive institutions or democracy or anything, we got here

1248
01:11:00,052 --> 01:11:07,112
despite that, so, so, like, being anything but optimistic is, is just playing the

1249
01:11:07,112 --> 01:11:11,657
game that's They want you to play, they want you to be fearful, and by they,

1250
01:11:12,077 --> 01:11:13,507
I mean all the assholes of the world.

1251
01:11:13,767 --> 01:11:15,867
Like, uh, so, yeah.

1252
01:11:17,017 --> 01:11:20,647
Anyway, Dylan, I think it's been an absolute pleasure having you on and

1253
01:11:20,647 --> 01:11:23,037
talking to you about this and that.

1254
01:11:23,517 --> 01:11:29,582
Uh, so before we let you go, like, is there anywhere you want to, uh Uh,

1255
01:11:29,602 --> 01:11:33,212
direct our listeners, uh, where can we find you online and where can we find

1256
01:11:33,212 --> 01:11:35,502
your stuff and anything else in general?

1257
01:11:35,963 --> 01:11:37,903
Yeah, no, I appreciate you having me on.

1258
01:11:37,903 --> 01:11:38,993
This has been a blast.

1259
01:11:39,093 --> 01:11:41,903
Um, took it in a whole bunch of different, uh, places.

1260
01:11:42,013 --> 01:11:46,073
Uh, yeah, you can just find me on Twitter at Dylan LeClaire, um, underscore,

1261
01:11:46,113 --> 01:11:48,053
doing a whole bunch of Bitcoin stuff.

1262
01:11:48,513 --> 01:11:49,753
Um, I post on Nostr too.

1263
01:11:49,753 --> 01:11:52,733
I'm not even sure how to hand that off to Nostr, but I need to

1264
01:11:52,733 --> 01:11:57,553
post more, admittedly, um, but yeah, no, this has been great.

1265
01:11:57,613 --> 01:12:00,853
Uh, it's cool seeing you guys a couple of times at the EU conferences.

1266
01:12:00,883 --> 01:12:04,353
I think new, I think I saw you at Amsterdam too, if I'm not

1267
01:12:04,368 --> 01:12:05,718
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah,

1268
01:12:06,593 --> 01:12:08,413
but yeah, no, this is, it's great.

1269
01:12:08,463 --> 01:12:11,983
It's awesome that we get to talk, you know, X thousand miles away

1270
01:12:12,503 --> 01:12:16,173
about this freedom, uh, this freedom technology, this orange coin.

1271
01:12:16,713 --> 01:12:20,633
Uh, and yeah, I'm super bullish, um, super bullish on Bitcoin.

1272
01:12:21,133 --> 01:12:25,923
Uh, I think the, the spectrum or the array of how this can all happen,

1273
01:12:26,043 --> 01:12:28,803
um, you know, both extremely quickly.

1274
01:12:29,253 --> 01:12:33,353
Uh, faster than any of us can comprehend or fathom, um, is a

1275
01:12:33,353 --> 01:12:35,643
very, very, uh, real possibility.

1276
01:12:36,263 --> 01:12:40,603
Um, but likewise, you know, who knows, maybe it takes longer than we expect.

1277
01:12:40,603 --> 01:12:44,763
And we're just, uh, on this super small corner of the internet where we're.

1278
01:12:45,188 --> 01:12:48,228
Very much obsessed with the thing and we're right, but it takes, uh,

1279
01:12:48,428 --> 01:12:51,258
takes a long time or longer than maybe we'd want for other people

1280
01:12:51,258 --> 01:12:52,828
to come along and understand.

1281
01:12:52,828 --> 01:12:53,948
And I think that's okay too.

1282
01:12:54,198 --> 01:12:57,148
Uh, freedom technology is important and everybody that needs to

1283
01:12:57,148 --> 01:12:58,418
understand it will at some point.

1284
01:12:58,458 --> 01:13:00,778
So yeah, super bullish on the future.

1285
01:13:01,618 --> 01:13:04,828
Just a quick question there, are you coming to Madeira by

1286
01:13:04,828 --> 01:13:06,848
any chance, to Bitcoin Atlantis?

1287
01:13:07,378 --> 01:13:08,068
I am planning on it.

1288
01:13:08,068 --> 01:13:09,188
Yes, uh,

1289
01:13:09,328 --> 01:13:09,808
great.

1290
01:13:10,188 --> 01:13:11,748
Great, then we'll see each other soon.

1291
01:13:11,918 --> 01:13:13,018
Looking forward to that one.

1292
01:13:13,948 --> 01:13:14,798
Cheers guys, this was fun.

1293
01:13:15,451 --> 01:13:16,181
Thank you very much.

1294
01:13:16,709 --> 01:13:17,669
Thanks a lot, Dylan.

1295
01:13:17,729 --> 01:13:19,409
This has been the Freedom Footprint show.

1296
01:13:19,779 --> 01:13:20,699
Thanks for listening.